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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (46611)	1/3/2000 9:13:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116957

Morgan Stanley's Wien -Fed to hike rates 100 pts by yr-end NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's U.S. investment strategist Byron Wien said Monday that he sees the Federal Reserve beginning a monetary tightening in the spring and hiking rates by more than 100 basis points by year-end to slow the economy. The tightening, combined with high valuations, will spark a stock market slide that will take the Standard & Poor's 500 (^SPX - news) down 25 percent, where it will remain for several months. He said that the powerful advances in the global and U.S. economies and stock markets will create an enormous demand for capital early in the year, and the long U.S. Treasury bond yield will top 7.5 percent, further straining excessive equity valuations. He also sees online users complaining about slow speeds, disappointing service at some tech companies, and delivery bottlenecks from e-tailers triggering buyer resistance in Internet-related stocks. ``There is a graduated carnage in technology. Some Internet content and retailing stocks correct 50 percent, and access providers come down by a third. Personal computer and other hardware companies with current earnings only decline 25 percent,' Wien added. ``The Internet continues to be viewed as the most powerful business phenomenon in our lifetime, but the stocks were discounting a profitability reality that was unlikely to come true.' During the year, Wien sees the price of crude oil moving above $30 a barrel and staying there as growth throughout most of the world beats expectations and supply remains under control. He expects oil service stocks to rally, with Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL - news), Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE:SLB - news) and Smith International Inc. (NYSE:SII - news) seeing gains. biz.yahoo.com