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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (36632)	1/4/2000 5:48:00 PM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Another reason, or "Don't Spend Them Short Profits Just Yet" Jon Olesky, head of block trading at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, pointed out that the seasonal money flow -- pension money, retirement account money, bonus money -- has been delayed because of concerns over Y2K. Olesky said he believes the market will start to see that money dynamic next week and the week after. Olesky said he has the sense that next week you could see a totally different market, volatile on the upside instead of the downside www.thestreet.com "Market Roundup"

To: American Spirit who wrote (36632)	1/4/2000 5:54:00 PM
From: KM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Tuesday January 4, 5:42 pm Eastern Time U.S. Options -VIX pops as stocks sag on rate fears CHICAGO, Jan 4 (Reuters) - The Market Volatility Index (^VIX - news) popped up on Tuesday as fears the Federal Reserve might hike rates this year helped drive down the Dow by more than three percent and the Nasdaq by its biggest point drop ever. The Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX measures implied volatility of several Standard & Poor's (OEX) 100 strikes and typically moves opposite the stock market. The so-called ''fear gauge'' spiked up 20.05 percent, or 4.95 points, to end at 29.64. It flirted intraday with the 30 level, which some analysts said signaled an overabundance of put buying and which could start to presage a market ready to rally. ''Are we getting near the (VIX) top? Probably,'' said Scott Fullman, chief options strategist, Swiss American Securities Inc. ''Is the top today? That's a little hard to forecast at this point... It's not like it's going up to the 60-percent level, like we've seen in the past.'' The VIX on Tuesday hit its highest intraday level since October 18, when it closed at 28.44 after pulling back from a spike intraday peak of 35.48 set the previous trading day. The cash S&P 500 index bottomed at 1,233.70 intraday on October 18 and subsequently rallied into the year-end. ''Yes, we're (stock market) oversold on a daily basis but on the weekly chart I don't believe we're oversold at all,'' said Ken Walker, vice president of options trading at First Union Securities. He noted that on the weekly chart, the VIX remained within a trading range dating back to the fourth quarter of 1998 and which has a topside near the 35 to 37 level. ''So we're pushing toward the top end of the range,'' Walker added. ''I think short-term we're overdone...but there could be more damage done'' especially if the Fed hikes rates over the next few months by as much as a full percentage point. Other options market indicators were mixed on Tuesday, with CBOE's put/call ratio rising to about 0.53 by late in the day, a level that Fullman still called neutral. But the OEX put/call ratio stood near the 1.33 level late on Tuesday, above the 1.2 that Fullman considered the threshold for a bullish reading. ''The (OEX) put/call ratio has been giving bullish readings -- too much put buying on the OEX,'' Fullman added. ''But on the total (put/call) numbers, no, they haven't.'' --------------------------------------------------------------------------------