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Non-Tech : Deflation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (22)1/5/2000 5:32:00 PM
From: jwk  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 621
 
>>>...the speculative bubble induced by the credit bubble aided and abetted by the Fed can only end thusly.
note that the big bubbles of the past in this century (20's globally, 80's mainly in Japan) have all given rise to talk about a 'new era' as they were accompanied by disinflation and rising productivity as well as technological advances of considerable import...<<<

heinz -- That's harsh medicine, but worth considering. Personally, I favor the disinflation, rising productivity, tech advances road to universal well being, but....I'm going to be searching for additional analysis to support the IPO.com/margins theory of explosive credit/M3 expansion.

If that is the case, I think there'd be plenty of hired guns out there in the financial press who would run with a story like this:

**FED Snoozes While IPO.com Speculators Make Off With Y2K Cash Stash**.



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (22)1/5/2000 5:55:00 PM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 621
 
hb,

I strongly doubt we will have the apocalyptic catastrophe you envision. A much more likely scenario, IMO, will be a significant deflation of the tech/IPO bubble and a shift of the bull market to undervalued areas, without any significant economic dislocation, and without even a recession. The "good deflation" that jwk is talking about will help considerably in this benign scenario.