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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (12070)	1/5/2000 7:57:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Chuzz, I think your valuation method misses a key point. Technology stocks (and certainly internet stocks which I consider to be a different category) are not being valued using such strict perspectives. Clearly valuations are a function of a variety of things - some of which you aren't capturing. - Expecations - Momentum - Technicals (which almost always ignores fundamentals) - Relative Valuations (look at the Nuts!) Using your methodology the only stock in this sector that anyone should touch would be COMS....or perhaps CS... right? OG

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (12070)	1/5/2000 8:57:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

Chuzz, Of course I agree with you about the current valuation. I offered the in perpetua valuation as a strawman for discussion. Apparently there has been only one company in history to deliver 20%+ growth for as many as 15 consecutive years - IBM in the heyday of the 360. Even MSFT has, in its history failed to deliver against that target. Cisco now has delivered 8 consecutive as an independent company. We are betting that current bubble valuation persists a bit longer - indeed the nifty fifty didn't blow up overnight. The key is to understand that the more extended valuations in the tech group will be very volatile and to act promptly when solid research tells you that events could catalyze a revaluation either of the group or of a particular stock. CSCO is not a risk-free investment returning 70% a year - but try telling that to the pollyanna thread cheerleaders who apparently believe they have discovered perpetual motion, the universal solvent and cold fusion all in one.

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (12070)	1/6/2000 11:45:00 AM
From: Zoltan!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

>>I wonder if Zoltan ever took the time to study the nifty fifty. Has Zoltan pondered the fate of can't miss stocks like Polaroid or Xerox? I wonder if you ever realized that those companies/that era and Cisco's position can be easily distinguished? As for manias, I guess you don't know that I was on the Iomega thread in the early Spring of 1996 warning them all that the stock would crater. Still, dedicated Iomegans were mortgaging their homes and "loading up the truck". The "true believers" lost over 90% of their investment. I guess you don't know that I was on the COMS thread telling them that COMS would never succeed in a direct assault on Cisco and that they should do what Adobe did in the shadow of MSFT, become king of a niche. I was derided but their salvation was that they lucked into one with the Palm. I guess you don't know that I told the FORE people that they would not exist as a separate entity w/in five years. FORE rose at the end, but spent years as dead money. None of that made me very popular with the partisans. Where I was wrong: I was also on the AMER (now AOL) thread telling them that AOL was greatly overvalued and had an inferior product. In retrospect, that was a huge financial mistake, but I never lost anything either. I still think AOL is crap and greatly overvalued, a mania, it's success a measure of people's fear and ignorance.