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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (12071)	1/6/2000 11:20:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Gary, The methodology I outlined is designed to determine what I feel a stock is worth. There is no way in the world that I would try to guess what the valuations the mass of investors would place on an issue at any point in time. We all know that fads sweep the marketplace, and trying to guess the next fad or short-term market move is folly in my opinion. Of course, as GV Tucker pointed out, some people are very good at this. I agree with your list if you wish to say that those are issues that determine market price. But that's a far cry from valuation which is based on quantifiable expectations rather than emotion. I think that the big shortcoming in the methodology I use is that technology is moving so rapidly that it is impossible to look out more than a year or two with any sense of confidence. Companies that expend huge sums on R&D can develop and bring to market all kinds of undreamt of gadgets that may be principal revenue drivers for the next decade. That's why I am unwilling to exit an "overvalued" stock provided that the overvaluation is not extreme. TTFN, CTC