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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (85335)	1/5/2000 10:53:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1571935

Hi fudd: If you insist...Keep your blinders on for the next 2 weeks...Maybe you can be a "big bear" at $48.50 and write some more puts then!

To: Elmer who wrote (85335)	1/5/2000 11:08:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1571935

Re: Hey! tell us again how AMD is about to rocket to the moon... He must be busy, I'll do it :-) ===================================================== Message 12446666 Hi Elmer, Here's a possible scenario for AMD in Y2K: Millions of units: T Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 K7 2 4 6 8 K6 5 4 2 0 K7 ASP $150 K6 ASP $60 Costs: .9B 1.0B 1.1B 1.2B Flash Sales $1.5B Com and Misc $0.5B Earnings: $1.4B EPS for Y2K: $9.30 Stock price: $280 Regards, Dan =========================================== PS - I'm serious about these numbers. Note the lower ASPs for Athlon than most expect, and higher K6-X ASPs. In a world where Intel and AMD are competing serously for the high end, high end ASPs will fall. The K6-X ASPs will be higher because a higher proportion of them will be for notebook systems than previously. One effect of lower high end ASPs will be an increase in high end market share. AMD should be able to supply about a third of the market with 12,000 employees. Intel will supply 2/3's of the market with 65,000 employees. There is more to being the low cost producer than die size. With recent news, I might expect AMD to ship a few million more units in Q2, Q3, and Q4 - so please take these numbers, and projected stock price, as conservative. <VBG>