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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (14247)	1/5/2000 11:10:00 PM
From: Rick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I don't buy that number of cell phones being sold in one year, not at all. Not that I know, but is it possible we are assuming most people will be using multiple "cell phones" by then. In other words, in many parts of the world the penetration rate will be well over 100%. - Fred

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (14247)	1/6/2000
From: LBstocks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

The PaineWebber analyst is not just talking about cell phones, he is anticipating CDMA technology being adopted in other devices such as laptops, cars, PDAs, appliances, etc. He states: "Higher data speeds are likely to enable the same applications enjoyed on the desktop today. That business model would likely include the imbedding of wireless components into most consumer electronic products. Qualcomm licenses the technology and sells the component required to make that future a reality."

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (14247)	1/6/2000 2:52:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, you have already had several responses to your post. To review, First: I agree that the estimate, based on cell phone sales, was too high. However: The present cell phones are replaced on a two year cycle. This is totally different that what we have experienced with other phones up to now. The chip will be in a lot more than just phones. I guess we can regard the chip as the guts of a modem, and, by that time, the chip itself may be an integrated modem. When you spin out everything that this chip will be in by then, it might work out to two or three times his estimate. He did not allow for the profit from the sale of the chip, only the royalty. On the other hand: If you postulate a 5% royalty on the cell phone based on present prices, you will be way high, because the volume will reduce the real price The chip profit will drop due to volume. Finally: His estimate is still to low, based on your DD!

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (14247)	1/6/2000 2:56:00 AM
From: Theophile	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I have not followed the Paine Webber report, but what I DID notice in the Motley Fool piece(yesterday, maybe a different editorial, this by Otter, no comment) was that QCOM was not a Rule Breaker candidate, while NOK, ERICY, and Alcatel WERE candidates.....hmmmmmm...now, TMF is NOT a fan of QCOM, several folks over the past year have noted this, not just me. AND, NOK is hot against QCOM, spreading fud thick and heavy, and I just wonder why TMF is comparing and contrasting QCOM with telephone handset producers, which Q no longer is.......anyway, I felt the Fool piece was more fud, right or wrong, fud. They never say much about Q, unless it is to say it is overvalued. Now, for JDSU The Fool has a different attitude, so go figure.....but not too long, use Occams' Razor for the answer.......Martin Thomas