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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (85429)	1/6/2000 1:56:00 AM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572603

Kash, <And in mid year they produced 6M K6's and only sold 4M had a 2M overhang as I am sure you recall. At that time Fab 25 wasn't fully facilitized.> You know, I once suggested that AMD's Fab 25 was capable of producing up to 6M CPUs in a quarter, and I got dinged for it by someone (I forget who) who reminded me that AMD barely got there even once. Your logic in suggesting that Intel can easily crank out 60M CPUs per quarter is flawed. Not all of Intel's fabs are production fabs; a few are only used for development. Not all of Intel's fabs produce CPUs; in fact, several of them are dedicated toward Flash memory or chipsets. And certainly not all of Intel's fabs are operating at peak capacity, unlike AMD's Fab 25 which had to stretch to even get close to 6M per quarter. Come on, Kash. Let's get back down to reality here. Tenchusatsu

To: kash johal who wrote (85429)	1/6/2000 9:51:00 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572603

Re: "So Intel must be bursting at the seams and will smash all expectations. How else do you explain it." It would seem to me that Intel is bursting at the seams and whether or not they smash expectations depends on ASPs. The point I have been trying to make is this: #1 Intel said early in last quarter they would have trouble meeting demand across the board. Customers are reporting Intel had trouble meeting demand, and in some cases failed to meet demand. I attribute this is demand rather than manufacturing problems. #2 Customers are now indicating they will seek additional sources for processors, presumibly AMD. This poses a new opportunity for AMD that they need to take advantage of. #3 AMD, just like Intel needs more capacity to meet growing demand. There is a new modern fab sitting idle in Dresden. The Fab is behind schedule, how much behind depends on which press release you believe. It may be only a little behind or perhaps nearly a year. #4 AMD says it has met it's commitments. I believe those commitments were based on Fab25 capacity. Had there been more capacity there would probably have been greater commitment across the board. I think it is only reasonable for the AMD thread to realize your company is leaving money on the table because of a delayed fab. Re: "PS: Be sure to post your Intel buys tomorrow." I do not purchase Intel outright anymore, except on major dips. I am currently short 51 Jan Put contracts on Intel. 31 @ $75 and 20 $60. Why the "1"? Cash backed naked put limit in an IRA. Thanks for a reasonable discussion. EP