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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (12260)	1/6/2000 11:30:00 PM
From: Terry Audette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Mr. Fun, Your comments over the many months I have been reading them have been very useful and I value them highly. LU of course isn't the only company to experience this sort of thing and I'm interested to see how they handle it. I hope this won't make you gun shy in your postings. After all you can only give us your honest opinion of a given situation as you understand the facts to be. Please continue to do so.

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (12260)	1/7/2000 3:17:00 AM
From: HEP_Ronin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Hello Mr. Fun, I find your posts informative, I lurk on these threads (although not every day) as I own both LU and CSCO, (among others). I can't help but wonder if the change in buying patterns Lucent is experiencing would not be related to the all-optical router that they have developed. A shift to higher capacity pipes, more optical gear, software upgrades, and with the difficulties getting ironed out by the second half of this year -- incidentally just about the time that PSInet will be deploying the first one. Doesn't Lucent get guidance from their customers regarding future deployments? I'm sure they must. So, what's causing the disruption? Those higher capacity DWDM systems have to be connected to something! Just a thought, HEP_Ronin

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (12260)	1/7/2000 9:05:00 AM
From: Drake	Respond to of 21876

I'm with you, Mr. Goodtimes -- 'long term' that is. Common 'cents' says that if technology is the future, then LU, if run the way it was for 15 straight quarters, should prosper. dc

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (12260)	1/8/2000 12:59:00 AM
From: Jack Whitley	Respond to of 21876

<<I actually don't think it will turn out as bad as you might think, particularly for long-term holders. Guidance going forward is very aggressive - 25-30% top-line growth in the second half..............For those who are on margin - I feel very bad for all of you, and apologize if my comments pushed anyone too far out on the limb. For those who come here to flame and gloat - shame on you.>> Mr Fun, Please do not feel badly for anyone on this board. If someone is on margin with a stock that has a PE of 79, they are not investing. In my opinion your comments have been always presented from the perspective of an investor, and have been extremely helpful. Please do not stop posting here. This stock got ahead of itself, plain and simple. Plus, Lucent actually has to build hardware, it is not as easy to scale that up quickly, especially for new products that are in (surprisingly) great demand. Whenever things like this happen to an investment I own, I review, using a means test based on a tried and true quote from Warren Buffett - "The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company, and above all, the durability of that advantage." I think LU still has a tremendous competitive advantage, and that advantage will be VERY durable for years to come. jww

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (12260)	1/8/2000 11:35:00 AM
From: Clay Takaya	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Mr. Fun, I also hope that you will post your full LU post-announcement evaluation on this board in spite of the volume of ugly and useless messages that are showing up here . I know a lot of people here appreciate your comments. According to Rich McGinn at the CC, the problems appear to be in 3 major areas: 1. Optical - Manufacture of DWDM 80-channel w/OC-192 interface could not scale up to demand and customers put DWDM purchases on hold or went with NT (64-channel w/OC-192?) rather than go with the 16-channel product. 2. Software sales - Appears to be related to your reported 500 million sale. Here McGinn said that software customers were "aggressively negotiating" contracts which jives well with the blackmail angle of the story. 3. Network deployments - LU was not able to close contracts with several large customers which really highlights Gary's point about the weakness of revenue recognition based on customer sign-off. In some instances, McGinn said that customers were already receiving revenue from the installation, but had not yet accepted the network. On a positive note, here is what I heard: 1. Sales of DWDM products was up over 100% YoY and could have been much, much more if LU had been able to execute. 2. Ascend sales are up over 50% YoY which makes me think that NN is going to be hurting (again) at its next earnings announcement. 3. Although wireless was flat YoY, it is due to the huge Saudi GSM rollout last year which skewed the numbers. Sales are expected to increase over 20% for the entire year. Any meaningful comments on the above would be greatly appreciated from anyone. Clay