Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (10929)	1/9/2000 7:11:00 PM
From: Gary D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: Another parameter Bob might tweak is the US-versus-international ratio. The only thing I'm fairly certain of is that Bob is not calling a bear at this time. I don't believe he would have been on the air this weekend if he were calling a bear. I haven't received my Marketimer either, and won't comment on this topic after having received it, at least until next weekend. Enjoyed reading your comments.

To: marc ultra who wrote (10929)	1/9/2000 8:35:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc What is his model saying? 1)economic-growing too fast but if no recession clearly in sight would it be negative at this time? Hard to say. Faster than normal economic growth could lead to a projection of rate increases in the months ahead that may indicate a recessionary tendency. monetary-undoubtedly the money supply will now decrease post y2k but will his model show negative at this time? Projected rate increases would mean a decrease in the money supply going forward by definition. valuation-obviously if he finds this excessive and with us hanging around all time highs is negative. I would add speculation, a mania, and valuation are obvious problems here. In any event, this issue should be an interesting one. And may I add more speculative fuel to the fire: by mailing the issue out Saturday? most of us would receive it early next week when Bob has previously stated he would make a major call, i.e. early in the week.

To: marc ultra who wrote (10929)	1/10/2000 8:24:00 AM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

I will stick my neck out and say he is going to do a true rarity-lower his 100% invested position to somewhere between 50-80% invested in the equity portion of a portfolio. Would that imply an abandonment of his timing model? My understanding has always been that his timing model, the one he sites as being correctly 100% invested throughout the bull market, is an "either/or" situation, either 100% in the market or 100% out of the market. A

To: marc ultra who wrote (10929)	1/10/2000 10:46:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

>>> Since I have not received my Marketimer yet and probably won't for a few days I will speak freely today about my conjecture. >>> Well, it would be most interesting if this weekend he announced the timing model had just indicated a partial or complete move to the money market. It would be more interesting if he then came back the next weekend--the 14th anniversary show--and announced his retirement from the radio. This would be called, I think, timing of timing. Ciao, David Todtman

To: marc ultra who wrote (10929)	1/10/2000 5:32:00 PM
From: Zephod	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

>>I think in the newsletter Bob will for the first time since the beginning of the mega bull call for a less than 100% invested position in the equity portion of the portfolio.<< Marc; Bob mentioned January is the perfect time of the year to re-balance the portfolio. I believe he wants to spend time on asset allocation because now is the time to do it, nothing more. >>bear call is imminent. I see no evidence of this (in anything Bob has said) ..IMO he remains fully invested. Good luck.