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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3817)	1/10/2000 10:46:00 AM
From: Duker	Respond to of 5867

BK, That is a very high number (not in an absolute sense, but in terms of the ramp). I would feel better with a more moderate ramp ... but, what the hell ... people think that a combined AOL/TimeWarner is worth 12 x's revenues ... I remeber when 12 x's cash flow was the private market value (i.e., take-out price) at which one would value cable systems ... now, I suppose that the number is closer to 40-50 x's ... or maybe 100 x's ... why not ... I do not feel good about the environment in the stock market. People are main-lining the investment equivalent of heroin if they think the businesses like AOL and TimeWarner are somehow worth those stratospheric multiples. That said, the fundamentals for the chip equipment guys seem solid. Hey, in this environment, you could probably make the bet that some idiot would pay 12 x's LRCX's revenues ... --Duker

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3817)	1/10/2000 10:52:00 AM
From: Duker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5867

BK, 43%? That is a very high number (not in an absolute sense, but in terms of the ramp). I would feel better with a more moderate ramp ... but, what the hell ... people think that a combined AOL/TimeWarner is worth 12 x's revenues ... I remember when 12 x's cash flow was the private market value (i.e., take-out price) at which one would value cable systems ... now, I suppose that the number is closer to 40-50 x's ... or maybe 100 x's ... why not ??? I do not feel good about the environment in the stock market. People are main-lining the investment euphoria equivalent of heroin if they think businesses like AOL and TimeWarner are somehow worth those stratospheric multiples. That said, the fundamentals for the chip equipment guys seem solid. Hey, in this environment, you could probably make the bet that some idiot would pay 12 x's LRCX's revenues ... you could also go to Atlantic City and win big by placing field bets on the craps table ... I am concerned enough to be raising some pretty sizeable slugs of cash. --Duker