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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (95536)	1/10/2000 11:09:00 AM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Tony, re: "Depends on the market. How's that for a wimpy answer?" Wimpy but accurate. I'm blown away by AOL/Time Warner. If they can pull off a clean integration, that will be one heck of a company. I may even buy some AOL for a long term hold. BTW, I have Road Runner from Time Warner, hope I don't have to change to an AOL email address <g>. John

To: Tony Viola who wrote (95536)	1/10/2000 3:06:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Sold all my INTC LEAPs today, the ones I bought in June 1998. Another couple of points, and my limit order to sell all the remaining AMAT LEAPs (the ones I bought in Sept./Oct. 1998) will clear. At that point, I will not be long any U.S. tech stocks. Also sold my oil driller, RIG, today, just as it was getting upgraded. By contrast, in 1996,1997,1998, and most of 1999, I was 70%-100% long US tech stocks, often with a lot of LEAPs and margin. The final straw for me was when, overnight, Lucent warned, and employment numbers indicated more bad news for interest rates. Stock prices, in a rational world, are controlled by interest rates and profits, right? But the market responded, the next day, by setting a record in the Dow, and bidding the Nasdaq up 150 points. There is no fear anymore. Investors are ignoring reality, and simply buying whatever moves. Buy on despair, sell on euphoria. I'm selling, selling, selling. Specifically, re INTC: We are now at a PE (using trailing earnings) of about 40. This is an anomaly. The usual, and reasonable, range is 15-30. The PE is now far above INTC's usual range. It is far above Intel's expected EPS growth rate. I have always thought Intel (and Texas Instruments, once they got out of commodity chips) were the best big semi companies, and the semi industry was going to grow faster than almost any other industry. I love the company. I intend to be back in it someday (when everyone else is selling). But investors who get married to a stock (or to stocks in general), and ignore valuation levels, eventually regret it. I may be early, but I'm not going to be late.