Healthy discussion, alternatives being discussed, interpretations of similar points being considered, thanks thread, this IS the benefit of online investing.
Uncle Frank, your point is a good one, same Hanney, it really is THE BIG SHOW or NO SHOW, Dr. Yuen said so himself.
I think GMST wins. I wrote long reply, %#)(*^$ it got sucked into cyber-nothing when i popped wrong key and closed Navigator application, THAT should be programmed into an application to prevent that from EVER happening, bad UI.
Summary version:
ASSUMPTION: GMST must deliver both timely content AND proper content to win big. Both factors are a MUST.
1. Satellite and broadcast viewers represent sure wins for GMST technology. TV signal coming in to be watched automatically carries proper programming info, and provides timely distribution. Score GMST 10% for broadcast, up to 50% for satellite long-term.
2. Cable previous unknown, but now looking much better with PageNet 900 MHz transmission option, which allows GMST to bypass potential cable operator roadblocks. Score another 25% for GMST.
3. Part of viewers are channel flippers, channel-specific viewers, or not tuned in. They make up difference, I'm giving GMST potential to capture up to 85% of all TV viewers.
4. GMST technology is universal, STB or TV will contain the chip GMST needs. If and when (as I feel it is inevitable) STB becomes viable web platform, it will be more for entertainment and relaxation vs. data-centric processing. Therefore, I conclude Guide will still be a must-have feature at that point in time. No net impact on overall usage.
5. Digital TV signal transmission does not alter numbers much either. It will shift some cable viewers to satellite, which is why I estimate at some point satellite may capture half of all TV viewers, as cable suffers attrition in the ranks. But, in terms of usage habits and patterns, it does not seem to alter much.
6. Two-way interactive communication commences in 2001 via PageNet 900 Mhz system. Acid test of all acid tests; we definitely need to keep abreast of how this progresses, and how much potential e-commerce and advertising revenue GMST appears to be sucuring through 2000.
7. Through joint venture TDN, GMST receives $0.50/quarter PER unit. Multiple device households provide opportunity for repeat and cumulative revenue stream.
8. Sony option would be viable in Sony TV, but what about JVC, HITACHI, MITSUBISHI, etc, and what about STB makers? Too much confusion, and asking rivals to bed-partner with the biggest electronics maker in Japan. I don't see it, despite cost and simplicity, there appears very little hope for universal adoption.
Back to the REAL ISSUE, whether or not we like it. BIG MONEY is going to come from advertising revenue, per page-view business model. Hanney is right on, GMST is a portal, or it is a zero. I wonder if Hanney is really Dr. Yuen :o)
1. Page-view model will fly, it offers best flexibility to advertisers, thats what they want. I think it means GMST is going to be held captive to audience participation. If TV land is filled with viewers, revenue streams in. If instead, they opt for the beach, revenue goes down.
2. Flexibility is going to lead to lumpy revenue. Forecasting of TV viewership is going to become THE GUIDE to forecastr potential GMST revenue. If Nielsens are high, so goes GMST, and vice versa. Do we have couch potatos, or computer geeks going forward? GMST loses on me, propeller head, pocket protector, buck teeth, coffee addict all telltale signs I'm ALL GEEK.
GMST is going to become a predictable entity fairly soon, as they begin to announce agreements for 2001 advertising and e-commerce applications. Also, TV Guide merger will be resolved. I give that a two thumbs up, no one understands this point that has decision making power, so the deal goes through.
Think outside the box for a second. Stephens report as much as spelled it out. Key to GMST success is going to be successful implemaentation of two-way communications. Everything BIG is based upon this technology working properly; it is the foundation the rest of the business model is going to be built upon.
Remember PageNet? Right now they, in a word, SUCK. Yet, GMST NEEDS them to implements a good portion of GMST'S business (all cable should be assumed, since it is uncertain cable operators will play ball with GMST). GMST has a choice to make here, compromise with cable operators (which will most likely lead to a compromise on ALL their business) OR ... keep PageNet afloat. Really, there is no other option, except to ignore cable (which is not an option).
Do they discount their whole business model to accomodate the cable operators? Think not, which is why I think a careful but preliminary study should begin that revolves around what return we might expect from PageNet (PAGE).
Is there gold im them thar hills? Gosh, they BLOW, did I mention that yet? I guess the reality is this, does GMST buy PAGE for $100M at current levels, pump up the stock, or ...? I'm not sure, but PAGE is going to start making money this quarter with one-way transmission of GMST data, I think that makes it worth consideration.
Much like the parasite that remains with the host (many times it is forcibly made to do so), to me it looks like PAGE is going to receive resusscitation until no longer needed or gobbled up.
Lots of thoughts, but technical analysis is NO substitute for some dirty digging. I tell you what though, after the digging is done, and the game is on, it's one KICK-ASS tool. Used right, it offers much reward, but it is still not used by everyone.
Which leads to my concluding point, as T/A is to investing so is GMST technology to TV viewing. It is a TOOL, what level of service it provides, the number of viewers that use this tool, and the successful securing of long-term advertising contracts will determine GMST's fate.
I guess in a way if you believe in GMST ... you are validating the benefit of tools, which indirectly implies you are also validating the use of T/A :o)
Technical Regards, JB
P.S. Off to PAGE thread, website, SEC archives, and as much as I can find on their competitors and their agreement with GMST. Thanks again guys, about the only guy that has a tougher choice than I do concering selling something to buy GMST is the unfortunate (yeah right :o) soul who must sell CSCO, NTAP, or QCOM to buy GMST.
EDIT-
Just looked at PAGE graph, noticed what I notice when looking at things like this at times like this. Large volume spike December 13th on uptick. Also, PageNet is merging with Arch Communications (APGR), looks like chart shows increased activity and interest, off to study two companies now. Actually three, PageNet spun off a part of the business, and formed Vast Wireless Solutions. |
