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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (14992)	1/12/2000 11:03:00 AM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I have been listening attentively to the EXDS discussion. I believe yesterday was the first time EXDS has been "declared" a King by anyone, so now I debate: TRFM, Page 35: "The key to the tornado from an investor's point of view is the astonishing impact it can have on the relative market share of the vendors competing within it. Typically at the outset, there are a handful of plausible candidates for market leader, all bunched together, each having market share within shouting distance of each other." It seems that is where we are in the idc market. No one has a proprietary lead in this market. Many of the contendors, besides EXDS, have the capital, the expertise and the management to compete. " Sooner or later, however, one of these vendors shoots out of the pack, rapidly distancing itself from the others, taking with it the lion's share of the future sales, and an even greater percentage of the future profits of the sector-- forever! " Of course, this describes the emergence of a Gorilla from the Tornado. I believe you will agree that the idc market is not a Gorilla Game. It is a royalty game, and we are early in the storm. To declare anyone a King would be a big mistake. To declare several Princes fighting for the throne would define a potential basketful of stocks for holding lightly.

To: Apollo who wrote (14992)	1/12/2000 12:33:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Respond to of 54805

Stan, nice work on EXDS. Thought the following might be of interest: In the 1/10/00 issue of Interactive Week they have a item called "Top 10 Takeovers to Watch for in 2000" The article has immediate validity because #2 on their list was Time Warner - although they did not mention AOL as a potential acquirer. Anyway, #4 on the list is Exodus. They state: "This high-flying Web-hosting provider remains profit-free and is burning cash at an alarming rate of more than $100 million per year. Meanwhile, the competition for the high-end hosting market is getting stiffer from the likes of AboveNet, AT&T and Equinix. Expect someone big such as Global Crossing or MCI WorldCom to buy Exodus to gain quick entry into the market. Exodus' $14 billion market cap won't be a hurdle for these companies." StockHawk