To: bob zagorin who wrote (30174 ) 1/12/2000 9:52:00 PM From: Torben Noerup Nielsen Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 32384
Bob, I don't want to pollute this list excessively with Internet related issues, but in this case it's probably relevant. At least marginally. The AOL/TW merger may turn out to be a brilliant move for both when some time has passed and it may also point out a way to deal with the massive overvaluation of some Internet issues. AOL has a very large subscriber base, but increasingly, people who get an Internet connection wants entertainment. That's what TW has. At the same time, TW was almost certainly unvervalued while AOL was overvalued. The combination forms a giant which will be somewhat overvalued at least for a time. But there may be enough synergy in the merger to unlock real value because AOL may be able to help generate revenues from many of the TW assets via the Internet. You could well see other mergers along those lines. For example, Amazon.Com might buy up a chain of bookstores and use their Internet reach to make it more profitable. But they'd have to find one that was indeed undervalued and then value it significantly higher in the merger. I'm not sure this is all that good an example since Amazon.Com is even higher valued than AOL was! Hey, Ebay might merge with Sotheby's :-) Yahoo is more likely to go it alone and make it. But many of the last year's network related IPOs such as RedHat and VA Research don't have much of a prayer as far as I can tell. Then again, Intel and IBM are heavily invested in some of them and that may help cushion the blow. But there are definite signs that money is flowing out of that side and it has to go somewhere. Biotech is a very good option I think. We've come far and fast with silicon. But protein offers a *lot* of interesting possibilities. There are even overlapping areas that hold tremendous promise for future development. In 50 years, you'll have artificial biological computers. That one I'm sure of. Note that I'm not talking about ``artificial intelligence". To me, the distinction is intelligent or not; how it arose is an irrelevant issue :-) Cheers, Torben