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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (58484)	1/14/2000 12:51:00 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, I believe a 50%+ weighting would be considered an overweighting by almost every professional money manager. I'm about as bullish as they get long term (2 years) on this sector. We're talking shades of gray. That's why I wanted to clarify my comments for those who only hold 5-15% of their holdings in this sector. In that case I'd take any sales or winners and certainly rotate into laggards. I don't see a full 100 basis point increase during an election year. High oil prices and especially declining stock prices will do much of the work. I'd say expect another 50 basis points, but that will be enough to pop the tech bubble and move the pendulum to value till at least summer imho. Yahoo is stalling (sold off after great earnings). First time I remember that happening. What was somebody saying about not being able to rally on good new? (VBG). AOL is dead. Volitility, often seen at market tops and bottoms has been incredible in the techs. The overall market has been tame by comparison. The long run in techs is almost over. (However, I bought some NPNT today in case I'm wrong - short term trading play). We won't need steller fundamentals if we get some decent rotation. We're seen that already the past few days. Bad API's? Oils still do good. Fund managers are scrambling for value plays here. When the value plays get expensive then I'll be pretty worried about the overall market, but we're not there yet imho. As you when know there are so many laggards in this sector both small and large that if it really starts to run I won't miss a thing. I can be 100% back in this sector with 2-3 days imho. Missed FGH?, not problem I'll buy GIFI, UFAB etc. People are far too obsessed with buying at the absolute bottom (myself included). As long as you make a profit, who cares? Aside from Healthcare, oils, cyclicals what other beaten down sectors are out there?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (58484)	1/14/2000 2:23:00 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

Slider, Reluctantly today I took profits in most of my stocks, believing I could go to laggards if need be. Kept the PKD and UFAB though(seems redundant, doesn't it, VBG). Because: Charts the day before belied the move today, I went with the charts (oscillators said down) and limit orders at possible highs (now that seems contrary!). I got lucky (maybe) and sold all the limits. Also JimL; took all profits in health sectors, thanks very much for the pointers; I'll owe you one, correction two, at the Boom 2K party. I'm hoping they HRC USON let me back in, but at smaller, safer levels. My ulterior motive? Expecting Greenie Meanie (tonight and) this February to give me an either shorting or bargain op, expecting his speech tonight to not be nice, Y2K was a buffoon. Will it effect OSX or will OSX benefit from rotation? I don't know but I do want to play short soon, so needed to raise cash, laggards are the backup if the OSX takes off. In any case, + 27% is a nice way to start the new year in the first two weeks. Frankly, I think I'm nuts sometimes, but then so is the market! Best Regards, Roebear

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (58484)	1/14/2000 5:04:00 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

We all agree the internut mania is about to end, either by $30.00 oil or 7% long bond rates very soon. The fed is behind the curve on interest rates due to Y2K and other factors, and with this being an election year, my bet is they will catch up ASAP in order to avoid having to raise rates in the fall. I expect to see a .75 to 1.00 increase in short rates as quickly as the fed can manage to do so. The question is where is the best place to invest during the transition? I've been looking at shorting the NASDAQ 100 through buying RYAIX, a speciality fund which performs the opposite of the NASDAQ 100 Index. The decline of the .com companies should be the end to a long and painful bond bear market. RYGBX is a bond fund with an investment benchmark of 120% of the daily price movement of the current 30-year U.S. treasury bond. In equities I intent to maintain my positions in the E & P and service sectors stocks. I believe they have more upside that most of the basic industries or other value stocks. Currently in KEG, MDR, OEI, PTEN, VPI, APA, XTO, DO, EOG, GLBL, NR, NBL, PGO and TBDI. Hoping to get back into RIG, TDW and BHI on any pull backs. Anyone have any other ideas on the best way to capitalize on what is about to take place over in internut land? Someone mentioned a fund on this thread that trades at two times the opposite of the performance of the NASDAQ 100 Index. Anyone recall the name of the fund? Jim