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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (37492)	1/14/2000 9:28:00 PM
From: bcanada	Respond to of 99985

So what do you say to someone who has mustered 80% of his retirement into cash just this past week. I'm retiring in 6 months by the way. regards

To: StockOperator who wrote (37492)	1/24/2000 11:53:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Critical time for the markets. After attempting to break out of its longer term consolidating pattern, the Dow has broken down the past couple of weeks. This combined with the transports breaking down from some very long term support places a great deal of pressure on the avgs to hold here. I have been watching groups like the brokers and banks for signs of price support. Their prices (brokers) have also broken to the downside out of a very tight range. Is this the beginning of a more significant correction OR is this just another classic headfake by the smart money prior to a more significant move higher. Here are a few of my observations as well as stocks that I believe will give very good clues over the next week as to where this market may be going. As I mentioned earlier the brokers, imo, have patterns that are very explosive. They should be watched very carefully here as we head into the end of the month for any signs of price strength. As many of you know the market often likes to dish out a "fakeout before the breakout." I wouldn't try to anticipate any turnaround here. I believe you have to respect the current trend, which right now is down. Watch the airlines and any stocks that makeup this index (as well as oil prices). The transports, imo, is the key index to watch simply because it is in the most precarious position overall. UAL was down only slightly today while DAL actually posted a gain. Pay close attention to FDX here for any price strength as well as the close on Friday for a possible price reversal on a closing basis. Many of the generals like DELL and AOL are sitting right on long term support lines. A further breakdown in their prices would not bode well overall. During times like these when the markets are at a crossroads in the intermediate term trends it is stocks like IBM and INTC that often point to the next direction in prices. Their prices were very strong today. Ask yourself whether or not this market is going to correct without them! Let me just finish off by saying that I follow quite a few high tech companies, especially in the internet arena. Quite a few of them have explosive patterns for the month of FEBRUARY. So unless things really get ugly over the next couple of days my gut tells me that this could well be an attempt to shake off the weak holders. Right now I believe the best action is to trade each index or stock individually and let the avgs tell us where they want to go. It doesn't make sense to stand in front of a runaway train. The next couple of days will be important. Good trading. SO