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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (11179)	1/14/2000 8:02:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 15132

I think the problem happens when somebody uses Fixed Font. Then your reply (and any replies to that) will also be in Fixed Font.

To: marc ultra who wrote (11179)	1/14/2000 8:50:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Respond to of 15132

IT WORKED :-) Thanks marc. P

To: marc ultra who wrote (11179)	1/15/2000 12:54:00 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Big NYT article on the decline of long term investing. Looks like another one of those articles you later point to as a sign we were at a top nytimes.com

To: marc ultra who wrote (11179)	1/15/2000 11:38:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Let's dissect this call by Bob a little for it is in some ways a departure from what we were hearing last fall when visibility was poor. At that time Bob emphasized the model is either bullish or not, with the alternatives being an indication of either a bear or an intermediate term correction. Further he noted an intermediate term correction frequently deteriorates into a bear market once the drop has started so as I recall he would likely recommend going effectively to 0% equities if the model went to bear or intermediate correction territory. Now I would guess his model has deteriorated significantly but has not reached actual bear market territory nor likely intermediate correction term territory as well though this is perhaps less certain. The idea that the model apparently has not screamed clearly bear ahead is also supported by his response to a single caller that I was waiting for throughout the show. The caller asked Bob something like if it was possible that with further deterioration of the model that he could go 0%equities. Bob replied (roughly quoting)he thought about this a lot and the question is basically can there be further deterioration in the model that could cause him to become even more risk averse and the answer to that would be yes. This gives us reasonable insight and a basis for conjecture into Bob's thinking. We have a timing model that is deteriorated but likely not in bear territory, perhaps added to market action that Bob is unimpressed with given his mention of the fact we have not really done that much recently other than volatility and maybe more importantly the expected strong bullish affect of inflows in the first two weeks of January is nowhere to be seen. This is evidenced by the fact that the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are actually lower now than on 1/1/2000 and the Dow only with a marginal new high since then. Looking at the whole picture in the context of the massive bull we've had in the past 5 years he likely made a decision this is not a market he wanted high exposure to anymore and given he felt this way does he want to keep a fully invested posture for his subscribers, radio audience and money management clients? If he really doesn't like the market now after he has brilliantly led his minions to huge profits by steadfastly remaining 100% invested, should he now stubbornly maintain a 100% invested posture because his model has not made that final flip to bear? He has answered that by recommending the same cautious posture he probably took for himself and his recommendations were made easier by having his little calculations showing risk reward given the parameters of a 10% up market and a 20% down market. The very fact that he uses 10% as his up market example emphasizes he sees another big year as extremely unlikely IMO. I know this 40% business has surprised and confused people and was certainly unexpected by me and I'm sure others so comments on this analysis are welcome Marc