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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (11214)	1/17/2000 4:50:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc Excellent summary as to what is going on these days in relation to Bob. Would you care to comment on a comparison between 1976, as detailed in the September 1999 Marketimer, and 1999 to the present? It occurs to me that similar patterns may be in play. The fact that Bob has gone to 60% cash indicates a severe deterioration in outlook.

To: marc ultra who wrote (11214)	1/17/2000 5:32:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc / USPIX I decided to go with Uspix to hedge myself down to a 40:60 ratio. With Uspix there is no expiration as with futures and options, there are no margin calls, and I can put up half the amount of money I need to hedge because the Uspix objective is to do twice the inverse of the Nasdaq 100. Seems more cost effective to me and I could always offset the position in real time using the QQQs.

To: marc ultra who wrote (11214)	1/17/2000 6:08:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: Re: " Now I would guess his model has deteriorated significantly but has not reached actual bear market territory nor likely intermediate correction term territory as well though this is perhaps less certain." I agree. But the way I see it -- and these words are mine -- Brinker is projecting a 60% chance (the amount of cash raised) of a decline of more than 20% (see newsletter). Now Bob terms his move on air as a tactical asset reallocation decision based upon the risk/reward of the market which is fine by me. But I cannot see any distinction in the way I have phrased Bob's view and the way he has phrased it thus far. In fact, I like the way I have phrased it -- assuming it is accurate -- because it is more meaningful to me.