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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11252)	1/17/2000 6:24:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

RE: "I agree. But the way I see it -- and these words are mine -- Brinker is projecting a 60% chance (the amount of cash raised) of a decline of more than 20% ..." I think that Bob is placing a near 100% probability of a drop of 10% or more. What do you think? Best wishes, I2

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11252)	1/17/2000 8:35:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Bank Article enquirer.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11252)	1/17/2000 11:42:00 PM
From: Rock Fish	Respond to of 15132

>Brinker is projecting a 60% chance (the amount of cash >raised) of a decline of more than 20% (see newsletter). This is very similar to the position of splitting between Bonds and Stocks in order to reap 75% of the returns for 50% of the risk (his comment to a caller, "You'll look like a genius when the stock market declines..."). Having the 60% in cash as opposed to Bonds is minimizing the risk even further without much affect on return, given a rising interest rate environment. On the other hand...... When valuations and Fed monetary policy have become issues in the past, Bob has correctly predicted corrections and gift horse buying opportunities, complete with target buying points on the indices. What makes this different? Bob may not be necessarily assigning odds to a bear market or extended downturn. It is possible that Bob is really doing 3 things: (1) Taking profits (2) Predicting a deep, temporary (short term) correction. (3) Generating cash reserves for buying back or dollar cost averaging during the correction. Finally, I do think he needs to go to email alerts for his newsletter. He, himself, nearly took a caller's head off for not owning a computer. I think that's the least he should expect from his newsletter subscribers. -- Rock Fish