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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cdbud who wrote (6288)	1/17/2000 4:14:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 7772

Bud: I don't have much of an opinion on the auction count right now, other than to say that the counts have recovered nicely from Christmas. However, I don't think the auction counts this quarter are going to grow sequentially anywhere near what they did one year ago. I think 2000 is the year that eBay will be acquired by Yahoo, AOL or Microsoft. Possibly Amazon. Possibly CMGI. While eBay can stand alone as an online auction company, I don't think the company has the creative juices or management to do what is necessary to become a real world killer. (I thought so a year ago, but the real lack of innovation in the last year, combined with the technical glitches, have been a real problem for the company.) This was OK a year ago when eBay was growing like crazy, but this year is not going to see kind of growth without major initiatives from the company. Look at the areas where Amazon has beaten eBay to the punch: 1. Amazon now allows its sellers to accept credit cards without having a merchant account. 2. Amazon allows First Bid Wins 3. Amazon allows for a Take-It price. 4. Amazon allows for a first bidder 10 percent discount. What eBay needs more than anything is someone like Jeff Bezos at the helm. This guy is constantly shaking things up and entering new segments. Sure, eBay still has a big lead over Amazon and Yahoo auctions, and I expect it to remain that way for a long time. But look at all the other areas Amazon and Yahoo are getting into. (Sure, Amazon is losing a bunch of money, but Yahoo is doing extremely well in the growth and profitability categories.) Meanwhile, eBay still gets 99 percent of its revenues for listing fees and commissions. Where is the advertising revenue? Where are the strategic partnerships? Why is eBay ignoring B2B? eBay's customer support is still extremely weak. eBay is constructing all kinds of roadblocks that make it impossible for anyone else to promote the site. I could go on and on, but the major point is that eBay is resting on its laurels, playing it safe, and that is NOT what Internet business is about and that is not what Internet investors like to see. And THAT is why eBay stock is meandering while Yahoo is taking off like a rocket.