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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (87369)	1/15/2000 10:58:00 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573433

Hi ted: Enjoyed your post! 1. The street consensus at negative $0.07 reflects the hordes of AMD disbelievers and naysayers who continue to overweight past AMD failures in arriving at their estimates for 99Q4! They won't understand that a paradigm shift has occurred, with the Athlon addition to product mix, until AMD closes at $63.00 or better. (Refer to SI post # 80625 for details substantiating such a paradigm shift). 2. Goutama's post #86920 points out that Q4 AMD market share rose from 12.5% in Q3 when 4.5 million processors were shipped (i.e 0.2 million Athlons and 4.3 million non-Athlons) to 17%. 3. Assuming a direct relationship (i.e. albeit a large assumption) between increase in market share and increase in units shipped, the implication is that 6 million processors (i.e 1 million "spry Athys" and 5 million non-Athlons) have been shipped in Q4. 4. Q3 earnings report states that operating losses were cut by $70 million to $105 million from Q2 owing to a combined effect of a 28% increase in flash memory and higher margin Athlon sales (i.e 200,000 units?). 5. Using the same reasoning as in para. 4, operating losses of Q3 can be cut the same $70 million to $35 million as flash sales are expected to improve by 30% and Athlons shipments have increased not by 200,000 but by a minimum of 700,000 units to a minimum total of 900,000 in Q4. 6. It is the effect of this additional 700,000 Athlons that will propel AMD well into positive earnings territory in Q4. Assuming 200,000 Athlons in Q3 accounted for $30 million of the reduction of $70 million in operating loss, then the effect of the 700,000 (i.e. conservative estimate)increment in Q4 Athlons should further reduce operating loss by a minimum of $100 million. 7. In summary, a Q3 operating loss of $105 million could easily be reduced by $170 million which catapults earnings to a positive $65 million. Take off an additional $15 million for Athlon marketing leaving a $50 million profit or approximately $0.31 eps! (Note: the Athlon increment could be 1.3 million units acccording to some estimates, in which case, $0.31 eps is very, very conservative). 8. There is little doubt from my perspective that AMD will "blow away" street estimates of negative $0.07 and in so doing test, if not blast through, AMD's all-time high of $48.50...Confirmation of the paradigm shift (i.e when almost all reasonable thinking people come to accept the Athlon for what it is...i.e "THE WORLD'S FASTEST PROCESSOR") occurs at $63, the upper boundary of the 5 year trading channel! P.S. It would not surprise me if AMD opens at $48.50, (assuming it hasn't already reached that level) on Thursday morning, the day after earnings are released and marches rapidly forward from there to test the upper boundary of the 5 year trading channel at $63 as Q1, and the continuing strem of AMD-specific good news evolves.