To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (47143 ) 1/17/2000 5:42:00 AM From: Alex Respond to of 116790
Hi George, good to see you post here again............... Euro will overtake dollar ? and Britain will join by 2003, Nobel winner forecasts By Diane Coyle, Economics Editor 17 January 2000 Britain will join the euro by 2003, according to the latest winner of the Nobel Prize for economics. "I predict Britain will be in monetary union within two or three years. The reality will sink in that there is no other good option," said Professor Robert Mundell. Speaking to The Independent during a visit to London, he said: "The kinds of tension that would exist if Britain remains a member of the EU but continues to block monetary integration would end up souring the relationship. Staying out would undermine the sense of national purpose." Professor Mundell predicted that the euro would steadily grow in importance as an international currency, despite its initial weakness against the dollar. As more countries join, the euro area will overtake the US in terms of population and GDP, and demand for euro reserves will grow until it overtakes the dollar, he said. The professor won the Nobel Prize last year for his research on currency unions, which laid the foundation for the creation of Europe's single currency. He said UK membership would be good for Britain and Europe. "It would bring great benefits. Britain can lead Europe into this next millennium." Professor Mundell said there was no need for the UK to have been forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in September 1992, an episode that soured attitudes to monetary union. He blamed the setback on the Bank of England for having failed to intervene to support the pound in the futures market as well as the spot currency market. "Intervention is of zero purpose without intervention in the forward market as well," he said. Professor Mundell was confident that public hostility to the euro would evaporate. "As it gets going it will become a fait accompli," he said. Professor Mundell is an outspoken advocate of increased stability among the major currencies of the dollar, yen and euro. "A currency union between the dollar and yen wouldn't be as silly as all that," he said. "Volatility of the yen-dollar exchange rate is dysfunctional. It doesn't serve any purpose." With all three major central banks targeting inflation of 0 to 2 per cent, a world currency would make sense, he said. The banks would simply need to target an agreed world inflation index. Professor Mundell was involved in discussions along these lines in 1987, but plans were derailed by the October stock market crash. However, he admitted that a global currency union was unlikely. "The big problem is the egos of politicians. The US will say no to a world currency. They will not see that the dollar is being displaced as the number one currency." But with three islands of monetary stability in the world, there is no need for the exchange rates between them to be volatile, he insisted. "We are gradually reinventing stability." Separately, a pamphlet from the Centre for European Reform warned that Britain would pay a high political price for failing to join the single currency by 2004. "There are signs of growing impatience in continental political circles," said author Steven Everts. independent.co.uk