To: jim kelley who wrote (151546 ) 1/18/2000 3:35:00 PM From: JRI Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 176387
<Dell management can not respond to every negative analyst report> Jim, I agree with you, PARTIALLY.... When Dell was appreciating at 100%+ a year, and the stock was in favor...yes, I agree with you..it was not necessary.. But we've just gone thru a year where Dell has, by a wide margin, underperformed the Nasdaq 100 index, and the overall Naz.... Currently, the "PC is dead" crowd has had its way in the public forum, and there are few (of which, Dell must be one, IMO) to defend the notion that, for Dell, core PC growth will continue to be very good....and supplemented with other growth opportunites (which Dell should outline....flesh out in continuing detail)..that Dell can grow at 30%+ rates (revenue, earnings, EPS) for some time to come.....While I do agree, that for long-term holders, this (stock's underperforming) is primarily a short-term problem (eventually the stock price should play "catch up")...one look at small caps will tell you that out-of-favor stocks can stay out-of-favor for quite a while.....for many of us, time is money...if I thought Dell would underperform over the next 1-2 yrs...I would shift out, and get back in (later)...so, in some respects, it is necessary for Dell to get moving sometime soon....IMO, it is a mistake to wait until Feb. earnings report to lay it all on the table...give the market to chew on (ie..comments about Year 2000 growth NOW)..to get the focus off of this silly .01 (which is what this quarter will likely come down to..). In fact, the quarter will likely come down to a .003-5...I reckon that, thru a round-up or round-down...Dell will make/miss quarter...that makes worry about this quarter all the more silly..but it is clear, that the Street is focused on it... Finally, Dell should loudly defend how cheap the stock is (among its growth breathen)..There is still a lot of mis-information out there....One example: Scott Black, Delphi Management, when talking about "over-valued" stocks....ALWAYS mentions Dell (and Cisco)....the only 2 he ever names...he has done this for 2/3 yrs now.....Guys like Black have not noticed that Dell P/E has shrunk considerably since Feb. '99...while the commesurate growth rate has only slightly slowed down...maybe its force of habit...but guys like Black...always mentioned Dell as "way overpriced"......looking at how the market is pricing big-cap growth stocks nowdays......it seems hard-to-believe that one would pick on Dell, but many do......Dell needs to shake these types out of their bad habits....Get them to do a little work again.........Many on Wall Street have obviously not gotten their calculators out in a while, and if they would, they would realize that Dell IS CHEAP here...If Dell (management) does not make some effort/headway in getting the message out that (A) PCs are not dead (B) Dell is undervalued....these "misconceptions" could last a while....maybe they'll be cleared up during Feb. earnings, maybe before, or maybe much later....Again, if this PCs are dead/Dell is overvalued image could linger for a while...IMO, Dell CAN make a difference by pounding the table some here... I continue to expect that Dell will be trading at mid/high 60's come Jan. 1st, 2001...