Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (151556)	1/18/2000 3:53:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi John,..Re:.Finally, Dell should loudly defend how cheap the stock is (among its growth breathen). Wrong! <g> Don't think it's ever wise for any company to get into conversation about their stock's price. Look what happened when Ballmer talked about MSFT! <g> They actually need their analysts to get some enthusiasm for new product and/or value themes and/or super prospects in the PC sector going forward. Re:.If Dell (management) does not make some effort/headway in getting the message out that (A) PCs are not dead (B) Dell is undervalued....these "misconceptions" could last a while Maybe there is no current message to get out? Look at the number of press releases in 1999 compared with the 18 days already passed this year. dell.com dell.com Shouldn't they have already put out some Press about shipping Win2K machines on the 24th? Look at CPQ news releases. www1.compaq.com Look at HWP news releases. hp.com Cheers, Lee

To: JRI who wrote (151556)	1/18/2000 3:59:00 PM
From: edamo	Respond to of 176387

john....without an extraordinary event, dell will trade in its favorite +/- 10% 44 channel.....inability to hold above 43.5 last week has negated the possibility of a move to 48 short term. presently a bit oversold, probability of 45 in the next ten days better then seeing 40....... the best defense is a good offense..... out of sight, out of mind... trite cliches, but applicable to the current situation...

To: JRI who wrote (151556)	1/18/2000 7:09:00 PM
From: Geoff Nunn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

John, Re: silly .01 If Dell were an income stock, then I would agree with you that a $.01 difference in EPS, more or less, should make little difference in the value of the stock. (I gather that was your point). For a growth stock like Dell though, coming up short by a even a penny can make quite a difference in its implied valuation. Dell's EPS in 4Q 1999 was $.16. Consequently, its EPS growth rate for 4Q2000/4Q1999 would be 25%, 31.25% or 37.5% depending upon whether it were to report $.20, $.21, or $.22. These are not insignificant differences in growth, they are major. The usual models in finance assume that the value of a stock equals the sum of the present discounted value of the firm's projected future cash flows. If these cash receipts are growing rapidly, then the stock's valuation is highly sensitive to the assumed growth rate. (this is because of the exponential nature of the growth). Small variations in assumed growth can make for very large differences in earnings down the road. If Dell comes in at $.20 EPS, which would represent a growth rate of only 25%, IMO that could very well prove vindication for Niles' when he predicted an "horrific" quarter. Just my opinion. Geoff