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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IndioBlues who wrote (58654)	1/18/2000 5:05:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

What a day ! Anyone else ring the register ? I sold nearly 2/3rds from 2:1 margined, down to 65% cash. Turned over virtually everything I held in size today, except XTO - which didn't move much - it will... Had like 6 of 9 largest positions all up 10%, or more today & had to sell being on margin. Did add some rotation laggards; mainly E&Ps: LD TMBR COG. While I expect the trend to continue with domestic supply numbers; who knows what the API's may hold with the possible Y2K builds ? While crude is signaling that the API's hold no major threat; I think we are very close to substantial profit taking. I will try to "buy back" my VTS PGO NBL UPR & "some" FGH & UFAB cheaper in the coming days. If I miss them taking off - no problem; have a long, long list of rotation/laggard ideas. The reason I am confident of being able to buy back my core trading positions cheaper is I heard Fidelity & a couple of major funds were buying large today; we should retrace a bit just off of reduced buying - not so much from a sell off. Look at the cash inflows to the sector just on the "Big 3" of SLB HAL BHI. For trading, in deciding to take profits - I look for major up volume days on the Big 3 and we had 7.8 Million shares over the daily avg on just these three stocks. We had allmost $300 Million cash inflows into just these 3 stocks today alone - that's "large." Don't know if we'll see that volume sustained. I think they'll look to pick their spots; not coming back in large, unless it's in on another small retrace. This was one of the best, if not the best one day portfolio gain I've had, that I can remember. I think much of the OSX stocks are more than "fairly" valued here. SII ESV RDC NE WFT CAM & many fav's are a bit ahead of themselves here imo. I see numerous E&P's with near 50% upside remaining to merely their recent highs of this past Sept-Nov. XTO UPR EOG NBL FST LD COG TMBR PXD - all look very, very cheap on a fundamental basis & I think that the coming E&P earnings are going to be a dramatic catalyst for a major flow of funds to the exploration & production stocks. E&P's still have a major valuation gap to fill between themselves & the driller/service stocks & I think that gap gets filled very quickly off of the coming earnings reporting. Small caps like RGO CRK RRC ROIL TMR have broken well off their bottoms and many also have 30-50% upside still remaining. For the life of me; I have no idea how one holds SII here for example ? - it's one of my fav's; but who the hell is a buyer of SII, BJS, or CAM here ? Or, even the jackup drillers like ESV RDC which are in a sweet spot - expectations-wise; but they are near historic price levels to where their rig counts, dayrates & earnings might not catch up to, for 3-4 quarters ??? It's laggards like BHI,maybe DO for a while yet & PGO who is still cheap, or the small caps & especially E&P's here that are the play. Again; I will own BHI very, very large if it see's $20-$21 again. I'll be curious to see if we see the smaller caps & laggards really back & fill to a major degree here - that would be a healthy sign. There has to be some profit taking in the OSX fav's here - but, we may just see that cash reshuffled around to the laggards imo; and that is where to be. C'Mon API's ... and $30 Crude; & if we have another couple of cold fronts in NE ? Who knows how high we can go here... $30 Oil & $2.50 Gas with below zero New England wind chills; did we die & go to Oilpatch Heaven, or what ?