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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ruffian who wrote (62917)	1/18/2000 7:24:00 PM
From: Doppler	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 152472

I've been reading this thread for 3 weeks but unable to respond because SI charged my visa card but kept saying I needed to pay first to post. Anyway, you won't be getting an upgrade anytime soon from Merrill. Their upgrade of LSI is based on valuation as much as anything. Their last research comment on Q said that it should trade BACK toward the industry average of 60 something PE's. (LSI is 69 now). Q's may have good earnings, but their PE is over 500 trailing year. Earnings are expected to grow 35-40% per year (consensus),which if true would give them a historically high PE of around 20 in 2006, and a "new Paradigm" PE of 60 in about 2002-2003. Now, for some technical analysis- last week someone wrote that Q hits its 50 dma quite often. TRUE. Said it had bounced at 132 off 50 dma. NOT TRUE. 50dma at time was 102 is now 112.23 Q is also near, or below, 20 dma. About half the time recently it has gone to 50 dma after penetrating 20 day (see mid may, early august,september). Q is at daily uptrend line on linear charts but below support on log charts (usually used for larger price moves, like Q). It's 5 and 20 dma are about to cross. If they do, lookout, that usually means much lower prices. Also MACD and Stochastics are at sells, they did not turn to buys as suggested last week. Weekly, +/-DMI and ADX are also showing sell signals. We may get a bounce here, but if we don't break out soon look for a major downdraft, which intermediate term we will get no matter what. Longer term Q will be great but it is WAY, WAY overextended. It may take a couple of YEARS to get back to 200, IMHO. I know little of the supposed technology stranglehold that Q has on CDMA, but George Gilder just told his huge following that Q is not the only CDMA play. That can only hurt the stock whatever the truth is. Perception is reality. Finally- I don't know what the stock will do short term, but resistance is at 160ish, support here down to 129 ish. More support at 118 or so. Major support at 112 and 100. My guess is we will hit the lower numbers sooner than later, and I would use an upside move to sell, then buy in again much lower. Just my opinion. I own no Q but plan on buying it near 100, then if it breaks that and trades near it's 200 dma at 65, to buy more. Stocks DO usually trade down to 200 dma every few years, Q is due, and just think, that would still be up 1000% in just over a year. Sorry for the long analysis but 3 weeks of not being able to put in my 2cents and correct errors has me chomping at the bit. Regards.