SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Doppler who wrote (62972)1/18/2000 7:28:00 PM
From: Ruffian  Respond to of 152472
 
Fidelity New Millennium Ups Tech Hldg To
53.7% Dec 31

By Frank Byrt

BOSTON -- Fidelity Investments' flagship Magellan fund beefed up its
technology holdings by year-end, making the sector 27.1% of its $105.9
billion in assets as of Dec. 31.

That's up from 21.6% of its holdings at Oct. 31, the company reported in its
year-end 1999 Mutual Fund Guide, released Tuesday morning.

Fidelity Magellan, managed by Bob Stansky, returned 24.05% in 1999, vs.
29.27% for the Lipper Growth Fund Average, Fidelity said.

Magellan trimmed its financial sector holdings to 11.4% at year-end from
13.4% at Oct. 31 and raised its retail/wholesale sector holdings to 10.2%
from 9.7% in the same period.

New to the top 10 holdings at year-end were Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)
and Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), which replaced Merck & Co. (MRK) and
MCI Worldcom Inc. (WCOM) in the top 10.

Magellan's other top 10 holdings remained: General Electric Co. (GE);
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT); Home Depot Inc. (HD); Citigroup Inc. (C); Cisco
Sytems Inc. (CSCO); Tyco International Ltd. (TYC); Lucent Technologies
Inc. (LU); and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT).

Magellan increased its equities holdings to 96.6% at year-end, and cut its
cash holdings to 3.3% from 7% at Oct. 31.

Magellan held 422 investments at year-end, up from 341 at Oct. 31. The
fund's assets grew to $105.9 billion at year-end from $99.1 billion at Oct. 31,
Fidelity said.

Fidelity's Aggressive Growth fund, which grew to $15.2 billion in assets at
year-end from $11.5 billion at Oct. 31, slightly trimmed its technology
holdings to 46.8% at year-end from 47.9% at Oct. 31, Fidelity reported in the
year-end Mutual Fund Guide.

The Aggressive Growth fund, managed by Erin Sullivan, returned 103.02%
in 1999 vs. 39.18% for the Lipper Mid-Cap Fund Average, Fidelity said.

New to the fund's top 10 holdings at year-end were: Microsoft Corp.
(MSFT), America Online Inc. (AOL), Motorola Inc. (MOT), Mannesmann
AG (G.MNN), Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) and Citigroup Inc. (C).

They replaced Intuit Inc. (INTU), Realnetworks Inc. (RNWK), Tyco
International Ltd. (TYC), MCI Worldcom Inc. (WCOM), and Verio Inc.
(VRIO), which were in the top 10 at Sept. 30.

Remaining in the top 10 at year-end were: Exodus Communications Inc.
(EXDS), Brocade Communications Inc. (BRCD), Foundry Networks Inc.
(FDRY) and Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO).

The Aggressive Growth fund's holdings were more concentrated at
year-end. The top 10 holdings represented 39.1% of total assets at Dec. 31,
up from 27.7%, at Oct. 31. The fund held 143 stocks at year end, down from
171 stocks at Sept. 30.

Several of Fidelity's fund managers showed a decided tilt toward technology
late in 1999.

Fidelity's New Millennium fund, which had $3.8 billion in assets at Dec. 31,
increased its technology holdings to 53.7% at year-end, from 42% at Oct.
31.

New to its top 10 holdings at year-end were: Qlogic Corp. (QLGC);
Immunex Corp. (IMNX); Veritas Software Co. (VRTS); Qualcomm Inc.
(QCOM); and Emulex Corp. (EMLX).

The New Millennium fund, managed by Neal Miller, returned 108.78% in
1999, compared with 41.56% for the Lipper Capital Appreciation Fund
Average, Fidelity said.

Fidelity's Contrafund, which had $46.9 billion in assets at year-end, upped its
technology holdings to 24.4% from 18.3% at Oct. 31. The fund, managed by
Will Danoff, returned 25.03% in 1999, compared with 29.27% for the Lipper
Growth Fund Average, Fidelity said.

New to its top 10 holdings at year-end were CBS Corp. (CBS) and Home
Depot Inc. (HD).

Fidelity's Large-cap Stock fund, which had $1.1 billion in assets at year end,
increased its technology holdings to 32.3%, from 25.5% at Oct. 31. That
fund, managed by Karen Firestone, returned 30.2% in 1999, vs. 29.27% for
the Lipper Growth Fund average, Fidelity said.

New to its top 10 holdings at year-end were Home Depot and Wal-Mart
Stores Inc. (WMT).

-Frank Byrt, Dow Jones Newswires, 617-654-6742

Briefing Book for: TXN | X.FIN | XOM



To: Doppler who wrote (62972)1/18/2000 7:33:00 PM
From: Steve Warkentin  Respond to of 152472
 
please be very careful when paraphrasing George Gilder



To: Doppler who wrote (62972)1/18/2000 8:11:00 PM
From: Cooters  Respond to of 152472
 
jb,

I have no qualms with your TA, but the earnings analysis looks like you've been reading the mainstream press.

A "historically high PE of 20" indicates all stocks should trade at similar multiples. Clearly the emergence of dominant technologies has put this concept to rest. Should MSFT have traded at a 20 PE in 1988?

"their PE is over 500 trailing year". That is not based on earnings I look at. Are you including losses for the infrastructure division or restructuring charges? We also need to take into account the handset division will not be there soon.

'a "new Paradigm" PE of 60 in about 2002-2003'. Unless there is a hole in the story I am not aware of, the current price will not result in a 60 PE on 2003 earnings. I also think a 60 PE, when I expect some very exciting data rollouts to be occuring, will be quite low.

Just my 2 cents also,

Cooters



To: Doppler who wrote (62972)1/18/2000 8:35:00 PM
From: Hobie1Kenobe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
<<Their last research comment on Q said that it should trade BACK toward the industry average of 60 something PE's. (LSI is 69 now).>>

JB,
Would you be so kind as to indicate when that research comment was made. In Merrill's Dec. 23 Bulletin (compliments of jhg in kc - beta.siliconinvestor.com they suggested the following:

"But what we don know is that once the handset business is sold, the vast majority of QUALCOMM's revenues and earnings will come from semiconductors and royalties. We have previously argued that this stock should begin to trade more like a communications semiconductor company. The average P/E of this group is now at 110-times calendar 2000 EPS estimates."

Their calendar year 2000 EPS for Q was $4.51 ($1.1275 split adjusted)and the stock price was $485 ($121.25) yielding a 107 PE. Your statement regarding the industry average of 60 something PE seems to be a significant departure from Merrill's Dec. 23 report. Thanks in advance for your assistance in reconciling these differences.
JF3



To: Doppler who wrote (62972)1/18/2000 10:08:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
methinks you miss QCOM quantum jumps in earnings
they will be substantial and historic (e.g. ATT, China, etc)
just wait until ATT fails again this summer

you miss potential of HDR
the entire Wireless ISP new sector might be built upon it

you might just be missing the gorilla game 4 criteria
/ Jim Willie



To: Doppler who wrote (62972)1/19/2000 1:25:00 AM
From: The Verve  Respond to of 152472
 
JB,

Many an investor has sat watching on the sidelines, hoping, planning, waiting in vain for the opportunity to get in at a lower, more reasonable level on great growth stocks.

The gorilla growth stocks of this world (and there are very few) are NEVER cheap. They almost always appear overvalued in the present. You're never gonna get in at a bargain basement price.

I suggest you read a book called "The gorilla game". If you want a truly great growth stock, you're gonna have to learn what the ingredients of a great growth stock are and the dynamics at play in the market that surround it's valuation.

To mention that Q has a trailing PE of 500 is amateurish. Why mention THAT? LAST years earnings and PE are IRRELEVANT. Might as well say Q shouldn't be as high as 137 because they're a few miles away from the 5 freeway.

Instead of comparing moving averages, daily uptrends, TA, and the like, why not do some simple math.

Q's EPS projections are 50% compounded for the next 4 to 5 years. (And that is not including HDR or China) If you calculate what that works out to, you can easily justify Q being at $1000.00 by 2005. That would be a forward looking PE in 2006 of 70.

..........

2000 $1.25
2001 $1.87
2002 $2.81
2003 $4.21
2004 $6.32
2005 $9.49
2006 $14.23

Does a ten bagger (and possibly much more) in 5 years excite you as an investor?

If you're a smart investor, I think the answer is pretty clear.

Verve