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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hobie1Kenobe who wrote (62983)	1/18/2000 10:30:00 PM
From: Doppler	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

My figures were from Merrill's Nov research comment (with a 270 price target by the way). The quote was "will begin to trade more in line with the average communication semi-conductor company p/e of 60X". I see the Dec report you quoted with industry average PE of 107. I think the EPS estimates have been affected by the split. SI's own PE calculation shows 507 for 1999, as have several other sites I use. So I guess the proper EPS for 2000 should be a buck and change which gives a current PE of 130 something. Now the next bit question is whether or not 107 is too high a PE for the industry. I am long term VERY BULLISH on Q and Tech. We ARE in a new era. Still, I think history shows us whether it is Japan in the 80's (90% drop from pe's that were less than tech is at now), Biotech from its last boom, or tulip bulbs 200 years ago, that abnormally high PE's DO trend back toward their historic values. I'm not saying Q deserves to be back at a PE of 10 (stock price of about 11), or even a PE of 20 (stock price of 22)like high growth rate stocks of the past, but it and others will trade back down between historical norms and todays values, IMHO. All the technical analysis by the way still matters as much or more short term than PE's etc, because that is what the many big players trade off of. We are at a critical crossroads here.