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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mauser96 who wrote (15678)	1/19/2000 6:00:00 PM
From: James Sinclair	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Page 33 of the original version of GG says sales in a tornado are "not untypically 300% a year in the very early going, 'slowing down' to 100% over a longer period." I think we're mixing up cause and effect here. According to the RFM, pg. 34, "The tornado is a metaphor for the hypergrowth stage in technology markets caused when the buying resistance of the pragmatist herd finally caves in, and the rush to adopt the technology en masse". If I sold 1 widget last year and sell 4 this year, I experienced 300% growth, but this would hardly qualify as a mass market adoption we'd be looking for in a gorilla. We should focus on adoption trends rather than raw growth numbers to judge whether a tornado exists or not. CREE is a very exciting company with a technology that may very well make it a gorilla, especially if they're successful with the blue laser they're working on. But in my mind the 12 month backlog is more a reflection of constrained production rather than tornado like demand.