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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (88540)	1/20/2000 1:28:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1573088

Mani, <I was afraid that we might have flat to down day today. We might get just that.> I wish you (or anyone else) said that yesterday. I picked up a few k shares last nite at 48. I do not mind the paper loss given what I expect out of this stock but I would have preferred to pick it up much cheaper this AM :-( Anyways, I am surprised by what is going on today. The whispers were for 5-6 cents yesterday and the most optimistic forecast was at 26 cents. And the earnings were almost twice that and guidance except for a moderate Q1 was better than expected. Gee, what is wrong with this picture? I remember Yougang and I musing about AMD stockholders having to pay for not managing analyst expectations but this is ridiculous. <I do not really get the flat to down guidance for next quarter. Flash and communication up sequentially, unit slightly down and ASP higher. AMD probably is trying to set itself up for another blowout quarter in q1. > The additional $25M+ in Flash is going to be pure profits. The loss in chipset sales is probably not a big deal since it was low margin UMC resale business anyway. The additional Dresden expenditures will be offset by reduced SG&A. The money coming from incremental Athlon sales is going to be pure profits. Add to that the effect of depleting inventories can do to bottom line! Chuck

To: Mani1 who wrote (88540)	1/20/2000 1:36:00 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 1573088

I was not very impressed with the earnings and was a bit surprised with the after hour trading. Mani, I am not sure why you say this....AMD's report was one of the most surprising upsides I have seen reported. It blew out every possible consensus estimate on EPS and revs...and in light of Intel's report, its even more impressive. ted

To: Mani1 who wrote (88540)	1/20/2000 6:35:00 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Respond to of 1573088

Mani - RE: "I do not really get the flat to down guidance for next quarter. Flash and communication up sequentially, unit slightly down and ASP higher. AMD probably is trying to set itself up for another blowout quarter in q1." I think they are just being conservative. After reading JC's transcript (http://www.jc-news.com/pc/parse.cgi?AMD/1999Q4_Conference_Call/01 ) I noticed some costs will be higher. I think Q1 depends on how many fewer K6-x they will make, how many more Athlons they will make, and Athlon ASPs.