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To: Tony Viola who wrote (96922)	1/20/2000 4:22:00 PM
From: Process Boy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Tony - <Ten, Paul, what are your assessments of the unsold Athlons that are being talked about today (new to me today, anyway) and the $100 plus price cuts per Athlon. Also, I continue to hear that Coppermines are sold out. Is this the same old buyers-prefer-Intel thing, or something more (like is overall demand down right now, because it's 1Q or something more sinister?)> I knwo you didn't address this to me, and I don't really know up to the date market stats, but... Athlon prices are down. AMD indicates unsold inventory. PIII prices are pretty much steady. Intel indicates backlog to be cleared by the end of Q1. Now, I don't really know, but could it be that demand for PIII is good, and Athlon capacity is exceeding demand? Also, Intel serves markets that AMD doesn't service. Of course the bad news about this is AMD may have to start a price war to clear the decks. Yuck. Am I being too simple? Again I stress, I don't really know what's going on at the distribution end of things. PB

To: Tony Viola who wrote (96922)	1/20/2000 4:28:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Respond to of 186894

Tony, I have a few answers rolling around in my head, but I can't really put it into words, for I'd probably say something much different from what I intend to say. The only thing that's for sure is that the picture is very complex, and that Tier 1 guys can't just easily shift between Intel and AMD on a moment's notice. Probably in Q4, customers didn't place very big orders from AMD, and instead hoped that Intel would fill the unanticipated demand. That would make sense considering that orders must be placed well in advance. Maybe that led to the impression that Intel was having yield problems (e.g. Gateway's not-so-nice comments). If that's the case, then Q1 should be an awesome time for AMD as more customers depend on them to fill the demand. Hopefully, there will still be plenty of demand to go around, so Intel shouldn't lose too much to AMD. Tenchusatsu

To: Tony Viola who wrote (96922)	1/20/2000 9:30:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Tony - Re: "Ten, Paul, what are your assessments of the unsold Athlons that are being talked about today (new to me today, anyway) and the $100 plus price cuts per Athlon. " I brought this up last night on the AMD thread - and they all blew it off as sour grapes. Here's my re-post from last night: {========================================} Message 12620968 To: Charles R (88448 ) From: Paul Engel Thursday, Jan 20 2000 1:56AM ET Reply # 88464 of 88654 Chuckles - Re: "Athlon numbers were a touch lighter than what most people on this thread thought. " Sanders said they manufactured 1,000,000 AthWIPERS in Q499. Sanders also said, in the Q399 CC, that 200,000 AthWIPERS (from Q399) remain unsold as of October, 1999. Thus, AMD had 1,200,000 AthWIPERS made in Q499 or left over from Q399. Of these 1,200,000 - 900,000 were shipped to Distributors/OEMs and 800,000 actually were sold to "customers". Thus, AMD must have AN INVENTORY of 300,000 AthWIPEYS as well as 100,000 unsold AthWIPEYs in the Distributor channel !!! AMD thus has an OVERHANG of 400,000 UNSOLD AthWIPEYs !!! Yesterday, I highlighted Goutamas post that showed AMD had MASSIVELY dropped the prices of their high end AthWIPERS - by around 20%. Basically, AMD seems to be awash in a GLUT of AthWIPERs and is trying to get some customers by BOMBING their prices. Beware. {===================================} Paul