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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6238)	1/20/2000 9:12:00 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10293

Hey...has anyone noticed: 1) The NASDAQ was just under 3000 on 11/1/1999 and is currently trading at its all-time closing high of 4151. That's a 35% return in about 3 1/2 months or roughly 150%+ annualized. 2) At the current rate of growth, I figure everyone should just quit their jobs and dump all their money in the index + go 100% margin (wait a minute....I think everyone's done that already). 3) At the current rate of growth, I figure that the market cap of the NAZ will surpass the value of all the money in the world in about 5 years....cool! 4) NASDAQ stocks are worth about 2 1/2 times more than they were worth on 11/1/97...a little over 2 years ago. 5) Jim Barksdale and Bill Gates are now concentrating on giving away the majority of their fortunes...acquired entirely in the stock market. In the meantime, garage mechanic daytraders are plowing their life savings into the stock market. 6) The covers of Time, Newsweek, Business Week and U.S. News and World Report simultaneously sport the picture of internet pioneer Steve Case (head to any newstand, it's almost eerie to look at). 7) Absolutely EVERYONE on SI claims they're in it for the "long term" (especially if they're in a stock which just got clipped 40 or 50% on an earnings warning). And absolutely EVERYONE on SI believes they'll be able to calmly sell at the top. And people wonder why (with some rare exceptions) I'm selling off chunks of my tech portfolio on a nearly daily basis. I suppose I'm going to take a lot of grief if the NAZ rockets up another 100% from here. But I have a basic discipline that guides my finances. I have X dollars (I'm no Bill Gates, but it's a respectable X). If I get 2X or 5X, my life doesn't change a bit, except that I pay more taxes and can give more to charity. If X becomes X/3 or X/4 however....I'll be pissed! I'm sticking by my opinion that the risk in this market - and tech stocks in particular- has become unacceptable, especially for an investor that may be overmargined or gambling his entire stake (and I think there are A LOT of investors like that). I'm sticking by my advice that techs should be sold while prices are high, high, high and the money shifted to money markets, CDs, and the stocks of dividend-paying, boring value stocks (particularly financials and consumer durables) while those prices are low, low, low. But then again...what would I know?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6238)	1/29/2001 10:27:45 PM
From: Bill Ulrich	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10293

Bill W. The post to which I'm responding is yours from a year ago inre: XRX. You were right: Bottom was still to be found. And now?: finance.yahoo.com Serious restructuring in the works: www2.marketwatch.com{E5DD25F7-CD0A-4DA1-A227-7A09CCDA8E80} Unproductive assets sold off, work-force reduction implemented, expected to see black this year. "I looked at XRX. I think it will turn around, but I haven't bought the stock. It's only taken its first big drop, I want to give it some more time. If there are clear signals it has bottomed and turning around, there'll be plenty of time to buy the stock at great prices..." -MrB Oh my, a seven-and-many-copies grub.