From Raging Bull:
By: larryjaylee
Reply To: None Saturday, 22 Jan 2000 at 6:48 AM EST
Post # of 10167
Commentary... Longs... My .02~~~~~~~
...help me, help me, couldn't stop- its long- its good? :)
INTRO:
'WIZ' (cmgi clone) offers an unusual opportunity.
1. Life in the fast lane.
2. Life in the 'white hot' B2B internet sector.
3. Respect from delivering what is promised.
4. Stability from this quality managment team.
5. Stability from profitable divisions within the company.
My .02...........
It was easy to notice that the board slowed down Friday,
Jan 20, 2000 as the stock retreated from 1.40 to 1.12.
All of a sudden the posts have regained a 'quality & substance'
that was lacking during the 'run' from .60 to 1.40.
One of the problems is the internet and this board.
Given the easy access to information it is easy to log in and
get your daily fix of information.
Given the metoric rise in share value in the past few weeks
we may forget that 'it has only been a few weeks', and much
less for some (our valued 'newbies').
Given the quality of posts here in 'wiz' land it is addictive to
browse & read most if not all of the comments posted.
Given the substance of, many of the comments, it is worthwhile
to 'study' the posts in an attempt to 'glean' a morsel of
insight into motives of investors and the company prospects.
My point (s):
Venture capital makes ungodly profits by investing before the
market gets in.
We, 'the rat pack', are in a small way the 'venture capitalists'
for 'wiz'.
With the increase in share value, acquisitions, partnerships and
other benefits - "WEALTH will become a reality".
When the stock is listed on the 'european' exchange 'wiz' will
virtually become reborn as a 'find' and treated as an 'ipo'.
That is, renewed interest and commentary like 'this is a
core holding' may be forthcomming.
When the stock is listed on the 'nasdaq' exchange 'wiz' will
virtually become reborn as a 'find' and treated as an 'ipo'.
That is, renewed interest and commentary like 'this is a
core holding' may be forthcomming.
Large holdings, don't want to mention any names X, probably
were smarter than the rest of us in that they 'invested' at
a lower share price and therefore were able to acquire a
much larger share count for the investment $ than those
comming on board at a higher price.
They also had to 'suffer several months' of lateral stock values.
Those comming on board due to news
or company performance
or stock value increases
all wish they .....................'could have found this gem earlier'.
With the release of each 'site' we enjoy the benefits of share
value increasing, based on the quality and success of that
site.
Notice, I said 'each site'.
This barn is full of 'horses'.
I fully expect some horses to be worth more than others.
But I repeat there are a 'plethora' of horses to pull the freight
rather than 'betting on one' and the success of that 'one'
becomes a matter of life & death to the 'bettors'.
At this moment in time we 'expect' to hear 'earnings news'
that is 'very exciting'.
At this moment we are looking forward to the 'formal release
of Stock Secrets' a potentially 'very fast horse'.
At this moment we are looking forward to the formal release
of real time quotes that may be utilized by 'any site' and by
US firms and Canadian firms as well.
Also a potentially 'very fast horse'.
Notice, I have not mentioned the horses released prior to this
point in time.
Notice, I did not comment on 'wiz' taking free positions in other
companies - like 25% of this or - rights to modify a 6 mil piece
of software and the co-ownership of the results - or the
'synergy' of that software to impact on 'target packs', etc, etc
Notice, I will not make any attempt to 'hype' any of the 30 +
sites to come in the near future.
Notice, I will not comment on 'Target Packs' and its value to
wiz. Others have posted much more eloquently on its relative
value and what the value of 'wiz' should be on that 'ONE HORSE
ALL BY ITSELF'.
NOTICE, I have not commented on 'spin offs'. If you are
interested in 'HYPE' this may be the area to concern yourself with.
One or more 'spin off's' could .......
.....what normally happens when a stock splits, to share value
.....what normally happens with an IPO and the first day pop
.....what normally happens when earnings 'far exceed estimates'
.....you get the idea.
I will comment on the 'what have you done for me lately'
syndrome.
We have been getting wonderful news frequently, during this run.
The quality of management and what they are 'potentially
bringing to the table' may eventually be worth as much as
several 'new and very fast horses'.
Consider the term 'ROI', return on investment, as an example.
With the quality and quantity of news it is possible to start to
expect more and more and more and more....without fully
comprehending the 'import of each piece' of news.
'INFORMATION OVERLOAD' is quite possible.
Geez, we don't even have a PR firm that would 'pump daily'.
I, personally, am having difficulty explaining this company to
friends and clients.
You can go on, on, on, and never get your point (s) fully made
since there are actually TOO MANY to delineate quickly and
allow the importance of just 1 point to be appreciated.
It is difficult to create the desired impact of your point (s) in
a timely fashion.
Do you find yourself saying, 'by the way they do this', and 'oh by
the way this is due', and 'by the way they actually make money,
etc....
You get the point (s) ... is it possible we have an imbarassement
of riches here.
Too many horses to properly pick one and wax elequent on its virtues?
PERSPECTIVE:
If, for the first time, you reviewed your 'wiz' position after investing:
From 'August' to today?
From 'November' to today?
From 'December' to today?
From 'January' to today?
Caveot - If you invested Jan 19 to Jan 20 you have to wait till Feb.
~~~WOULD YOU BE SATISFIED with the 'chart and current value'???
****Me thinks you would be estatic.************************************
To daily watch the ticker is huge fun.
Watching the ticker is addictive.
Knowing a stock 'cannot go up every day' is natural but when a
sustained increase comes to a halt there is a shocked pause
wondering why or what is the problem, etc.
Our resident 'conservatives' will promote caution and attempt to
moderate the obvious enthusiasm that abounds on this board, in
an attempt to lessen the impact of reality when 'corrections occur'.
My impression is the tone of 'some' posts indicate a question or
panic quality as to the reasons for investing in 'wiz'.
Our conservatives would probably recommend those with questions
to exit at a profitable point and allow 'stronger hands' to acquire
those/their shares.
If we were smart enough to simply return once a month or once a
quarter to review our positions we would be spared the valleys but
would also miss the peaks.
I personally would not miss the 'ride'.
Higher highs and with 'wiz' and the lows are not very low.
Do we have a 'downside' - I believe it is non existant or so small
as to be negligable.
The chart would simply show a 'super line up' and we would be spared
the daily details and fluctuations.
PERSPECTIVE Future:
Do you think investors at 2.00 will take a different view toward
'what have you done for me lately' than I/we/you earlier investors.
The 2.00 investors will not understand the impatience from 3.00 investors.
The 3.00 investors will not understand the impatience from 4.00 investors.
And on and on.
Would they not be 'impatient' for news or rapid growth?
PURPOSE OF THIS POST:
The more I comment the more I pat 'el self' on the back for joining the
'wiz team' and the 'rat pack'.
No one - 'repeat NO ONE' - has commented or inferred this stock
has anywhere to go but 'up'.
We can debate the time table & how long it will take - but 'up'
seems to be a consensus.
Just jotting down a few points has allowed me to reflect on the whole
matter and 'absolutely re-inforce' my reasons for investing in the first place.
I remember 'chasing wiz' with a bid of .49 and not getting filled till .65.
Foolish, you bet, attempting to save a few pennies cost me dollars already.
I do not claim to be the purveyor of new morsels of wisdom.
I do claim to be amazing myself with the 'positives' that are listed and
those that were not included. I have the start of another 'op ed' piece (ha).
~~~% fun & 'fact' for your viewing pleasure~~~~
I included holidays and weekends.
---
11-18-99.....0.30
01-18-00.....1.01...... .012 per day incl weekends
............................... 336% for 61 days
12-31-99.....0.68
01-18-00.....1.01...... .018 per day incl weekends
............................... 148% for 18 days
01-12-00..... 0.59
01-18-00..... 1.01..... .068 per day incl weekends
............................... 162% for 6 days
No attempt is included to extrapolate out to 2.00 -
do your own math but rest assured its not bad.
3.00, 4.00, 20.00, 100.00, geez........................................
~~~~~~~~~~~
Am proud to be a 'rat' and my bride of 20+ a mini 'rat'.
Apologies to the dedicated ones who read every post -
I did not intend to carry on ... but ...
One last point ...
----Imagine how many points that I left out and how many times
----I started over in the attempt to make this readable - it could
----easliy have become a novel (ha)....
I can't imagine being anywhere else during the comming week.
Feb and March could/probably will be more of the same.
Expectations for 'wiz' have become almost impossible to meet,
judging by some of the recent posts.
Again, expectations: those investing Jan 19 have yet to have
the wisdom of their decisions come to fruition.
In the next several weeks they will be 'smug' told you so types.
I suppose the end of Jan might be a lateral move -
but what the heck -
This allows our resident 'chartists' and 'conservatives' to get
their breath and actually do some analysis before.....
the after burners kick back in.
Enjoy your weekend ... only 39 hours left before the 'monday'
wiz express is ready to launch again.
Larry
(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; LT Rating- Strong Buy)
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