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Technology Stocks : COM21 (CMTO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (1551)	1/21/2000 8:33:00 AM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2347

G'day all - hi pat, thanks for the info. But how would that impact the whole sector, and especially CMTO? I think proactive management - whether luck or back room dealing - is a crucial element for CMTO who has been in the penalty box since her snafu in failing to win certification from Cable Labs the 1st time around. TIA best, Bosco

To: pat mudge who wrote (1551)	1/21/2000 2:06:00 PM
From: J Fieb	Respond to of 2347

Pat M., Thanks for the report. If ;you go to the Merrill Lynch site and fill in a few blanks you can read their recent COM21 reports for free......... today.askmerrill.com Here are the teasers........ 1/19/00 COM21:Orders Very Strong; Raising Revenue Estimate 4 101K 1/14/00 COM21:Com21: Orders Very Strong, Raising Rev Estimates 2 72K 1/10/00 TECHNOLOGY:Tech Bits & Bytes 1/10 AM 2 69K 1/10/00 COM21:Here Comes Com21 4 109K Price targets not high enough in my opinion........

To: pat mudge who wrote (1551)	1/21/2000 3:05:00 PM
From: lml	Respond to of 2347

Pat: Thanks a meg for your DD & effort in providing this to the thread. The info provides some interesting issues facing TERN going forward. "Could you highlight current status on 1.1, timing, and success in Europe where customers are proprietary." The CEO answered, "We'll have prototype by mid year and approved by end of year. Make no mistake this is advanced certification that includes S-CDMA. . . . Based on the SEC documents, there is now no such animal as 1.2, so can I conclude Terayon is going for 1.1 certification based on its S-CDMA? Does CableLabs have to re-invent 1.1 to accomodate S-CDMA? A key statement in the info you provided was regarding the choices facing TERN should its S-CDMA technology not receive DOCSIS compliancy in time when CableLabs is ready to rollout its standard with the new advanced PHY capabilities (FKA 1.2 Certification): "The second [choice] would be to introduce the S-CDMA features as proprietary enhancements on top of a standard DOCSIS product." My guess is that TERN is proceeding on this split path strategy right now so as to meet 1.1 Certification. IOW, they intend to have their 1.1 modems DOCSIS compliant with S-CDMA as a proprietary enhancement. At the same time, they will be moving forward on a parallel path to gain CableLabs acceptance of S-CDMA at a time when the advanced PHY is adopted. I restate, this is just a guess. "IN their SEC filing they mentioned introducing a DOCSIS modem in Q3 1999. This is the OEM phantom from Toshiba. In conversation with a former TERN manager this afternoon, I learned they are not selling any Toshiba modems as they would in fact be re-sellers and the margins are so tight they wouldn't make a profit. This puts added pressure upon TERN to achieve DOCSIS certification of S-CDMA. They can no longer fool the market that they are DOCSIS compliant without placing pressure on their bottom line. Their customers have not been purchasing 1.0 modems but rather modems based upon S-CDMA technology. There's going to be added pressure upon TERN from their customers going forward to get DOCSIS compliant on their S-CDMA technology. IMHO, the foregoing puts TERN investors at tremendous undue risk, & the prudent ones should be selling the stock after its recent runnup following a bloated top line focused earnings report. I would not at all be surprised to see those same investors buy CMTO today. The market today is so short-term oriented that many have ridden TERN 'til it has been "fully depleted" of its "risk/return" fuel, only to dump it & jump on CMTO that has a "freshly-filled" tank of mojo following its 1.0 certification & prowess at the 1.1 level. JMO.

To: pat mudge who wrote (1551)	1/21/2000 9:45:00 PM
From: Srinivasan Balasubramanian	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2347

Pat Great work especially your last few posts. the more I think of TERN the more I am convinced something is wrong there. Similar to last qtr, TERN sold more than 4x headends than Com21 and in this qtr they shipped more modems than Com21. According to ML report, I think they said the recent acquisitions could have accounted for 10-15% of revenues this qtr. Assuming 4 mln from acquisitions, TERN would have made around 34 mln from their core operations. So a difference of 5 mln should account for 300+ headends and few thousand more modems they sold this qtr than Com21 (assuming same ASP's for TERN and CMTO). S_CDMA hype is getting bigger and bigger. It is easy to build revenues the way TERN is doing. the customer in this case has an incentive to buy more products (even if they don't need them) as the warrants when excercised may net them more money than they paid for the products. from your post I understand TERN refused to break up the revenues and talk about the warrants which is even more bothering. Whatever be the fate of Terayon, I am quite confident Com21 will be an excellent investment in the long run. -Srini