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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (37736)	1/21/2000 1:35:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Terry, it seems to me more of unwinding and/or the implementing of pair positions than anything else. The relative wild swings intraday are not indicative of trend setting. My speculation is that certain financial sources not native to the US are pressuring this administration to cool down the stock market or else ... and not to preach them how to run their economies. The recent release from the BLS that they consider accounting for stock option as cost of labor was not initiated by any indigenous (US) institution, I think the pressure came from overseas. No country wants it's high tech talent run abroad to collect higher salaries and get rich overnight from US stock options. Those are my two cents. As to looming recession - it will come but not before the dollar will start sliding in front of FED interest hikes (around 1% for Y2000) and the stock market will follow. There will be a struggle as 2000 is an election year. I vote for inflation in the US and weakening dollar. Aside from speculative investments the US is the riskiest stock market today if exclusing third world countries. (one of them would be Cyprus) BWDIK Haim

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (37736)	1/21/2000 2:50:00 PM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Terry--I can't get this url to open. cbpa.ewu.edu Any suggestions?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (37736)	1/21/2000 3:13:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

interesting post, Terry, re: yield curve: only the 10Y to 30Y is inverted. This can happen from technical factors. I wouldn't pay too much attention to it unless the 2Y or 5Y inverts with respect to the 30Y. This might happen if the fed raises in Feb., and has a tightening bias (er, I mean, "the balance of risks is toward inflation") Interesting, that the yield on 30Y Treasuries is 6.72%, and the yield on inflation-indexed 30Y Treasuries is 4.36%. That means the market thinks inflation will average 2.36% (the difference between those two numbers) over the next 30 years. 30 years is a long time, and lots of things can happen. Expecting inflation to stay near its historic lows for that entire time period is not a good bet. Even a few years of 4-6% inflation would make the inflation-proofed treasuries a much better investment. The long-term, inflation-adjusted return, for the best-performing asset class (stocks) is only about 7%. That's only 2 2/3% above the totally riskless inflation-indexed 30Y Treasuries. At some point (maybe after I double my portfolio another couple of times, VVBG), I may simply dump everything into those. It's idiot-proof.