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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (36959)	1/21/2000 8:47:00 PM
From: taxman	Respond to of 74651

"falling not because of its earnings" i'm afraid so. regards

To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (36959)	1/21/2000 9:51:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

>>>but because of the stupid cautious comment made by the CFO. <<< Give me a break, they do this every quarter, this is not stupid, it's genius, in business you always underpromise and over deliver. That said, i would like to throw out a topic for discussion for microsoft investors that i believe important, given it's underperformance in comparison with the nasdaq over this last year and loss of leadership. I have i distinct memory of adoration of IBM by investors and customers on the eve of the personal computer revolution in the early 80's. I believe MSFT is in the same position here, an Andy Grove "inflection point", and i believe msft, which is now the major power in the computer industry, as IBM was in the early 80's, is in the process of dethroning. i don't believe msft will be able to transition to the internet age and keep the same status, just as ibm was really never able to transition to the pc age and retain their status as be all and end all of the computer industry. b

To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (36959)	1/21/2000 10:18:00 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Frank: I feel your pain big time. However if you go back and look at MSFT's recent performance it seems to do this kind of a dance with regularity. It explodes and runs up to a high and then slowly sells off to a 15-20% discount. It always recovers and goes on to new highs exceeding the old one by about 15%. The earnings were somewhat of a disappointment in terms of those ascribed to O/S sales but that was to be expected as many corps. are not going to buy Win98 in the last qrtr. of 99 especially when W2K is going to be released on 2-17-2000. The cautionary comments were all part of MSFT's continuing gambit of perennially lowering the expectations of analysts. They do it with such sincerity that it inevitably chases the momentum boys away. You are therefore correct in saying that the cautious comments chased the "Mo Mo" boys away. But they are not really a factor in long term investing. MSFT's numbers are every bit as good as the darling SUNW but the perception is that MSFT is losing its traction in the O/S field and now must prove otherwise by having a great W2K campaign which no doubt will occur. In addition to this MSFT has so many irons in the fire that it takes a data base to keep track of them. People have yet to appreciate the depth of MSFT and what it is able to do on a moments notice even though they have the example of IE 5.0 staring them in the face. They succeeded so well with IE 5.0 that the have had to stopped not by the market place but by the US Gov't. The suit will pass away with a whimper as the DOJ has no case and becomes more laughable with each succeeding day. MSFT will prevail but it will take time for the anal-ists who are always looking past MSFT for the next MSFT. In the meanwhile sell covered calls or just wait but when MSFT decides to go up it goes quickly. It will be above 180 in a years time. If 80 points isn't enough then buy some VERT although through MSFT you already own some. JFD

To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (36959)	1/22/2000 2:00:00 AM
From: ed	Respond to of 74651

Do not forget the ruling day is closer, so it is not a bad thing to repaint the house !!!

To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (36959)	1/22/2000 10:25:00 AM
From: tonyt	Respond to of 74651

>John and ALL !! The Stock of Microsoft had been falling not because >of its earnings but because of the stupid cautious comment made >by the CFO. Come-on! They've been making those same 'cautious comments' with EVERY earnings release. The only thing that is different this time is that they didn't 'blow-out' the estimates (after deducting the investment gains they only beat estimates by 2c, and were over a nickle below the 'whisper'). Anyway, MSFT dropped only 10% since earnings. Also, this time its a new CFO, and a new CEO (...one who, btw, stated months ago that his company's stock was overvalued at $95). >We did not see any dramatic sell off with IBM,. GTW, and LU You didn't view LU's drop since their warning as 'dramatic'?