Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greg nus who wrote (88811)	1/21/2000 8:03:00 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572631

greg, re:<although AMD may retest the recent high of 45, it sill probable trade in a range from 30 to 40 for the next six months> I have a different opinion, more bullish than this, but not as bullish as "niceguy." Greg, we all keenly remember how breakeven was achieved a quarter early in Q3'98 and then a higher than expected profit in Q4'98 --- to be followed by the disaster of Q1'99. What happened then is Intel kept making faster and faster parts and AMD couldn't (very unlikely Q1'00). Also, the K6-3 failed to ramp, yields must have been terrible. Maybe this quarter the K6-2+ won't ramp, but thats just the low end part now, not like the "high end" K6-3. If AMD even sells just 1.2M Athlons at a lower ASP of $220 and a million less K6's (4.2 million) at a lower ASP of $55, they'll have the same CPU revenues as this quarter. Flash and Comm will grow enough to cover the increased R&D and Depreciation. I just don't see a downside to earnings. However, I do think it will take three tries to get through the all time high (48) and we've just had one. I would expect the second try to occur with a couple pieces of good product news, OEM news or one of the following: finding a president, selling part of Comm Group, partner for Dresden. The third try will be successful, and I expect it no later than Q1 earnings. Petz