Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (88822)	1/22/2000 12:38:00 AM
From: greg nus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572771

Petz I don't think AMD earnings will turn down. let's say they earn .40 to .45.in qtr 1/00. With more a's and less k's the mix gets sweeter. But nothing raely happens untill Dresden production kicks in. One analist asked Sanders when he expected A's to cross over K's and he answered not before the third or fourth QTR. until then AMD will thread water, above the surfce this time not below. The street will not give AMd a pe of 50 thats intels rating. So without significant increases in production where will the suprise pop come from. Sale of Coms has got to be discounted in already it's been anticipated long enough and at best is a one time pop that does not increase growth or pe. Here is something elese to condsider. Go back and listen very carfully to the cc. An analist questioned Jerry about this qtr's sucess. Jerry stated he did not expect next Qtr to be stronger an this for seasonal reasons, He said AMD dug deeply into K-6 inventory, I took that to mean almost sold out of inventory that may have been manufactured in prevoius qrt. Aslo Sanders said AMD expects to make 25 million chips in y2k., well at 6 million an analist pointed out AMD is already at or close to the 25 million run rate. So please tell me where the big increase in chip volume will come from prior to Dresden letting loose?

To: Petz who wrote (88822)	1/22/2000 1:30:00 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572771

However, I do think it will take three tries to get through the all time high (48) and we've just had one. I would expect the second try to occur with a couple pieces of good product news, OEM news or one of the following: finding a president, selling part of Comm Group, partner for Dresden. The third try will be successful, and I expect it no later than Q1 earnings. Petz, I think number 2 will be when HP formally announces. In fact I see AMD starting to move back up next week. I think the selloff was overdone and the smarter investors have moved back in....hence the large volume the past 2 days. I now understand why Sanders gets into trouble. The street does not appreciate the kind of earnings surprise he pulled this last week and consequently he is being 'punished'. That was evidenced when AMD got only 3 reiterates and a raised EPS target. That's pure bull given the kind of numbers AMD pulled. The street/analysts don't appreciate a lack of guidance when there will be a huge upside/downside and which causes them to lose or not make money. Therefore Sanders touch for the dramatic, I believe, is more responsible for the sell off than anything else. I suspect next week the upgrades will start to announced reluctantly....after all, these analysts can't afford to cut off their own cajones. There are very few growth tech stocks with rev and earning growth above 15% while sporting a small P/E...that's what will make AMD compelling as an investment in spite of any bad will towards Sanders. BTW I like Sanders touch for the dramatic....it makes life more interesting. ted