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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (37795)	1/22/2000 7:49:00 AM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Does anyone know where I can find a chart enabling an overlay of the Helsinki Index (HEX) with Nokia ADRs (NOK)? Thanks

To: Rarebird who wrote (37795)	1/22/2000 7:51:00 AM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

FWIW Shepler Capital Management: January 24-28,2000 Greenspan's Bubble We remain bearish on the prospects for the stockmarket in both the short-term and the long-term. Important tops tend to occur within 1-2 days of options expiration, so we are on alert for an important high in this timeframe. Now that the majority of hyped-up 4th quarter earnings are behind us, we feel that the market must again turn it's focus to the interest rate front. This change in focus should result in some major heartburn for bulls. The valuations built into the market (mainly the tech tulip bulbs stocks) are completely indefensible by any rational basis. And even most bulls will admit that the NASDAQ moonshot is a bubble solely fueled by a Federal Reserve money printing binge. So, at this critical time we feel that the odds are high and ever increasing that the end of this secular bull market is imminent. We are aggressively short and looking at all rallies as opportunities to add to short positions. To be sure, it is not a popular stance. Many friends and associates who were formerly cautious have now become unadulterated bulls. They have not only capitulated, but preach their new found bullish mantra with an almost religious fervor. Thus, my own skeptical bearish rhetoric is now being greeted with hostility and anger on their part. It seems that nobody wants to even think about any bearish possibilities in this "new era", and certainly nobody wants to talk about valuations. When the subject of valuations comes up it is quickly dismissed as a non-issue. Because to discuss such things might lead one to the logical conclusion that they should not be 100% invested in the NASDAQ right now, which is tantamount to heresy in this "brave new world". The only fear I hear expressed lately is the fear of missing out on another year of triple and quadruple digit gains in the Internet highfliers. Well, unpopular as it may be we are going to continue to observe Greenspan's Bubble from the outside rather than the inside. We call it Greenspan's Bubble because that is the name that historians will likely give it years from today. You see we contend that it is not the "new era" of technological gains that is responsible for such ludicrous stockmarket gains, but it is simply the result of THE most irresponsible Federal Reserve policy in history. "Bubble Boy" Greenspan's money binge began with the S&L bailout in the early 90's, continued with the Mexico bailout of 1994, then the fat-cat LCTM bailout in 1998, and finally the ill-conceived pre-Y2K money binge in the face of any already overheated economy. Every time there is the slightest chance that stock speculators will have to absorb a loss, the Fed responds with another fresh round of funny money! But when the market goes parabolic on the upside all the Fed does is jawbone about "irrational exuberance". So let's do the math on this one... When stocks are bid up to dangerously insane levels, Greenspan verbally scolds speculators. But when the bubble tries to deflate a little he turns on the printing presses to rescue the speculators. Hmmm, what would you do if you were a speculator in this scenario? Answer: Send the market into the stratosphere with reckless abandon! So what is going to stop this insanity? Certainly not our Dr. Frankenstein at the Fed. No. It will have to be bond traders who are presently responding to this irresponsible Fed policy by sending rates on the 30-year treasury bond ever higher. These bond traders realize that this reckless money binge WILL lead to inflation if not held in check. The only question is how high T-bond rates will have to rise to pop the bubble. Our guess is that the 7-8% range would be a definite death blow to the bull, but it may not take that much. Of course if the Fed finally begins to act responsibly, a big jump in the Fed funds rate would negate the need for higher T-bond rates to deflate the bubble. Either way the bubble will pop, and it will be quite a spectacular view for those of us with the common sense not to participate in it. (c) 1999. Bill Shepler - You can write to Bill at wshepler@yahoo.com

To: Rarebird who wrote (37795)	1/22/2000 10:42:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

wrt the XAU. A picture is often worth a thousand words- geocities.com BOE auction will set the tone- My prediction would be a turn around immediately, or perhaps after a short foray below the rising support line- A fakeout to the downside, much like the fakeout breakout last fall. It is in a perilous area- A break of support could just send it into the valley of hated investments. You gotta have nerve to buy it here- but it has proven rewarding in the past 2 years to buy it at support. Good Luck, TW

To: Rarebird who wrote (37795)	1/23/2000 5:16:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

Bird, this is the exchange i remember at the top. To: bobby beara who wrote (4523) From: Rarebird Wednesday, Sep 29, 1999 8:27 AM ET Reply # of 4901 Thanks Bobby Beara, my favorite bimbo market timer! Care to comment on where the Gold Market will be trading over the next couple of days. It seems that Gold is trading in the realm of Freedom now. Any price targets? How far can this short squeeze go? To: Rarebird who wrote (4526) From: bobby beara Wednesday, Sep 29 1999 10:26AM ET Respond to Post # 4528 of 4901 i believe we've seen a short term buying climax on gold Right now i have a very small position in gold stocks and will talk out of both sides of my mouth after i see how the market reacts to the boe auction. Expectations are low and most xau traders i know are out. a bearish result has as much chance as a bullish result, a trader doesn't iron into his brains cells a foregone conclusion, but reacts with lightening speed to where the money is going. b

To: Rarebird who wrote (37795)	1/25/2000 2:37:00 PM
From: Cathedra	Respond to of 99985

News on latest BOE gold auction. The link is cbs.marketwatch.com Gold gains after Bank of England sale Central bank sale 4.3 times oversubscribed By Gareth Vaughan, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 9:49 AM ET Jan 25, 2000 NewsWatch LONDON (CBS.MW) -- The price of gold rose $1.50 an ounce in London Tuesday after the Bank of England said its sale of 25 tons of gold had been 4.3 times oversubscribed. In London trading, spot gold rose to $290 an ounce from $288.25 an ounce after the Bank of England said it had sold roughly 25 tons at $289.50 an ounce. In New York on Monday, February gold lost $1.60 to $288.10 an ounce. See Futures Movers. Morning London gold fixing {Chart} The central bank said it had received applications to buy as many as 3,451,200 ounces although it was only selling just over 800,000 ounces, or 25 tons. The sale was the bank's fourth of a series of auctions it announced last year. It plans to reduce Britain's gold reserves from 715 tons to about 300 tons. Its next sale is set for March 21.