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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (10111)	1/22/2000 10:42:00 AM
From: Steve Grabczyk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Tom: All interesting thoughts as usual. So if I can summarize: - Diversity is a good thing although it may temper skyrocket valuations. It seems that this could be more than offset by the dynamics of AIM at work. - Sectorizing (using cyclicality) is a good thing. I need to do some research on what sectors exist. I'd like to find some counter-cyclical sectors and then search for AIM-ables within each. In fact, having tracked retail for some time, it seems to counter cycle with Hi tech. At least by observation. - Growth is a good thing. Hmmm. Doesn't AIM by the book ignore long term growth as requisite? RL's example is very specific in that respect (never higher than when you bought). I think that "price bias" may be a factor in determining buy and sell resistance. Vealies are a way to adjust to positive price bias. I just haven't mentally bought into them yet with respect to the algorithm. - Survivability is certainly important. Unless you exit prior to the failure. (Which gets me back to my original question!) To paraphrase Hamlet "To sell or not to sell....That is the question!" Don't get me wrong. I'm not looking to chase and dump on a regular basis. What I am trying to do is build the decision model that will maximize the power of AIM investing. In addition, I think that if this decision model can be verified with simulations or actual results, then it provides the basis to maintain the required discipline to stay the course over the long haul. BTW, on Kohl's (KSS). I know a few people who work there, and have been tracking their stock for some time. Like LE, they are a great company (must be that Midwest work ethic). They have just recently opened their first stores here in Texas and put Mervyn's and Penney's to shame. In addition they have the apparent volatility required for AIM. A look at the last 2 years shows this to be true. Just in the last year, they've cycled more than 10% at least 10 times. Lichello would drool over that. I'm going to run a sim in PCA on it later. And growth? How about an 1850% return since may of '92? Seems like a good one! Gee, now I want to AIM it! What to sell, what to sell. BTW#2: It's amazing that you mention the Heinlein story! I've never read it, but I can't tell you how many times I've told people that the reason I get creative at times is because I'm too lazy to do it 'the way it's always been done'. BTW3#: We are in good company. Did you know it took Einstein only a few months to develop his theory of relativity? He did so by doing what he called 'thought exercises'. It took him a few years to prove it mathematically. Thanks for the exercising with me on these things. I think this kind of discussion is what makes this the best BB out there. Regards, Busting my Brain in BROWfield