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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Geoff Nunn who wrote (151765)	1/22/2000 2:01:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Geoff- (Somewhat OT) I have a hard time disagreeing with most of your analysis....In fact, pts. #2 and #3 are almost exactly (as if I wrote them)...In this particular case, yes, I am making a short-term "play" on Dell...it is one of the few stocks I believe I can time.... I have watched Dell daily for almost 2 years now, and, rightly or wrongly, I feel that I have a decent handle on its movements, and what the current problems are...I think for the next few weeks...the "cloud" will still hangover the stock....I think the market is split on whether or not Dell will make its quarter....based on IDC's data (3% sequential growth in units)...I don't see how Dell is going to make the number....and I think the Street will punish Dell if they don't make it (even if the punishment is brief)....I believe that I will be able to re-enter at a lower point (in the near future...within a few weeks), and, in the meantime, I can make some (more) money elsewhere.... Normally, I hold positions very long...I do not like to trade much....however, I have been trading a little more lately....in issues I have followed for quite some time....Overall, my results (like many) have been spectacular the last couple years, so, yes, 50% p.a. growth would represent a significant slow-down from my recent track record....Dell underperformed most of my portfolio last year.....Normally, I am always overjoyed at the prospect of 50% p.a.....it is an unreal return....however, I believe, rightly or wrongly, that there are other stocks out there (that I've identified that) have a better risk/reward ratio than Dell (in this moment)....but more significantly, I believe I'll be able to re-enter Dell at lower levels in the next few weeks... Call me one in the Greg Mullineaux school <G> As far as longer-term plays, for one example, Tyco International. The only "blemish" on Tyco at the moment, is the "accounting inquiry"....free cash flow should tell you that there really isn't a problem here......if you do believe that the accounting inquiry will turn up little or nothing, (which I do) then almost everyone who has analysed the company believes it is severely undervalued...It is dominant in the businesses its owns...it is a "fiber-optic/telecom" play....no one questions its ability to make/beat its numbers in the next year....etc. etc.....In my mind (rightly or wrongly), I believe the risk/reward is better with Tyco (during the next year) than Dell...Dell, although a dominant company, faces more "business/execution" challenges than Tyco, IMO...and Tyco, also, is unlikely to be effected by any overall market downturn...or sell-off in technology stocks (to which Dell is always susceptible).....The recent plunge to 25 took care of that... In conclusion, let me state that I still own Dell long (just less of it).....I intend to add some again, in the near future....that I think its long-term prospects are bright....but it appears that there are still a few (actually quite a few) clouds of doubt (mostly, as you identified, short-term thinking) in the investment community...sure, that is often a good time to buy.....but I think Dell has been a "show-me" stock for a while now (really, since last Feb..)...and missing the quarter is not going to be the "show-me" that will get the stock going....once everyone really starts looking beyond this quarter...then the stock should begin to do well... BTW- Meathead and Patrick have Dell producing 3.57 units this quarter, looks like IDC is looking for 200,000 units less than that (which would make about a 1.5 cent difference in EPS)....will see whose right pretty soon...Like I said, if Dell gets back to 40, high 30's...I will jump back in (some)...

To: Geoff Nunn who wrote (151765)	1/22/2000 4:32:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

INTC reported a 7.9 % rise in revenues for the q4. Kumar has estimated that INTC shipped 31.6 M processors in Q4 versus 30.1 M in Q3. That is a growth rate of 5% in unit sales. If DELL merely matched the INTC unit shipment growth rate it would yield 3250*1.05= 3412 k units. The European numbers from CONTEXT indicate 750/.21 = 3570 k units. Thus unless the US fell off more strongly than Europe one would infer that the IDC WW estimate is low. I suspect that the preliminary IDC numbers are somewhat low as they were last quarter and also in Q1 last year. This quarter is going to be very hard to call in advance because of the reversal of trends in ASPs, changing product mix, and the impact of Y2K. Also, it seems clear that DELL has been working very hard in January and is now able to sell RDRAM based high end systems. Regular sales of preloaded W2K systems will begin on Feb 17 but W2K upgrade coupons are available now. In short, it is simply to hard to call the quarter before it is over. What is somewhat remarkable about DELL is that it is right on course to exceed its 25 B revenue target that was set publically more than a year ago. In other words, while we are fretting over a 100k in revenue and a cent in eps quarter after quarter DELL's calls its shots annually and exceeds them.<LOL> I guess this says more about analysts and investors than it does about the company itself. :)