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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (151775)	1/22/2000 5:05:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

John - re: looks like IDC is looking for 200,000 units less than that (which would make about a 1.5 cent difference in EPS).... What margin assumptions are you using to arrive at the 1.5 EPS hit? Also, apart from the revenue implications, 3.35M units would be essentially flat growth sequentially quarter over quarter. Admittedly DELL is not strong in the Xmas season but no unit growth for the quarter seems like a pretty grim trend, although an improvement in percent net could offset this. Any thoughts? BTW agree 100% on TYC, have a big LEAP position (400 ZPAAF Jan '01 30) picked up "after the fall" at 6 which is already looking good at around 16...

To: JRI who wrote (151775)	1/22/2000 7:09:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi JRI. "Horrible time" indeed. 3% sequential growth in units is the worst number I've seen and likely proves December was not a good month to be in the corporate PC biz. There is the potential to make some of it up in Jan but business has to be very strong. I think they could make it to 3.5M units (8.5% seq.) if things go well. But, that makes .21 all the more difficult. ASP's would need to remain nearly flat and GM above 21%. Not impossible however given that some component prices have been firm and Gateway just announced AUP's went up slightly with a 22.3% GM. However, if they do make the EPS, Rev and Unit growth are going to be somewhat anemic by Dell's standards. If Jan isn't unusually strong, I'd expect a warning at any moment with six days (jan29) left in the Q. So far IBM and GTW have reported a lousy Q4 each with their own set of excuses, and all has been forgiven in stockland. Somehow I don't feel the market will be as kind to Dell if they turn in a weak showing. Q1 can't get here fast enough... MEATHEAD