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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (74255)	1/22/2000 9:58:00 AM
From: re3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

sara lee ? are you suggesting for people to eat cake ? will consumption of cake increase in a bear market ? what isin't getting hammered relentlessly ? and how are you Wayne ?

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (74255)	1/22/2000 11:44:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 132070

Wayne, my thoughts on the food group I'm hungry -g- Check this out another distortion the the manufacturing productivity #'s Message 12632173 Did you check out the Droke article The Credit Bubble and its Consequences ?. very good mike

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (74255)	1/22/2000 2:03:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Wayne, I have been watching the food stocks for some time now. The stocks I track are ARCHER-DANIELS (NYSE:ADM), INTL MULTIFOODS (NYSE:IMC), INTR BAKERIES CP (NYSE:IBC), FLOWERS INDS INC (NYSE:FLO), MIDWEST GRAIN (NasdaqNM:MWGP), CORN PROD INTL (NYSE:CPO), and DEERE & CO (NYSE:DE). I need to add some more of the pure grain plays to this list since it looks like the grain prices are starting to look like they have bottomed. I expect the basic food companies to have pricing power with inflation that is driven by energy costs. There are a couple of other factors that need to be considered and that is weather and farmers with high leverage. The producers in this country are up to their ears in debt and some of them will not be able to plant next year. Also, the Canadians and Brazilians who have been dumping grain on the market in the last few yeas have to deal with energy inflation. I have been buying those companies that get trashed and deliver good yields, using MB's philosophy that I can handle getting a good return while waiting for the capital appreciation. <ggg> I don't know about Sara Lee during tough times or during periods of inflation. I remember during the days of high inflation these companies had difficult times because of price, people were buying foods that required preparation in the home. i.e., foods that were closer to the commodity. It could be different this time. I am interested in thoughts from the rest of this community on this area of investing. Joan

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (74255)	1/22/2000 3:40:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Wayne, The food group has zero pricing power and only cheap commodity prices are keeping them afloat. However, some of the names you mention look very good on a relative basis. But I've been buying some of this stuff about as cheaply as the internut freebies, and I have to wonder about there profit margins. For example, I stocked up on Campbells Chunky and Progresso soups last week. They were both selling buy one get one free, and I had triple coupons out the wazoo. Net, net, I was able to buy Progresso soups 2 for $1.50 and had $1.05 off in coupons. I don't really think they can sell soup for 22 1/2 cents a can and make any money. And it will be months before I need soup again. The Campbell's deal wasn't quite as good, about 50 cents a can all in. And I had a similar run with Smucker's jelly. So, many of these cos. are taking actions similar to any slow growth industry, offering incentives with loss leaders. Those who don't give good deals don't sell anything. However, I don't see where the margins are going to come from. So, you need consolidation and an end to cutthroat pricing, and I don't see that coming soon. The stocks are relatively cheap and I would probably opt for good quality takeover candidates, if you can find any.