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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TigerPaw who wrote (15940)	1/22/2000 2:10:00 PM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 54805

Topic: Timeframe for tornadoes Earlier this week, I finished The Roaring 2000's Investor by H. Dent. (Not to be confused with The Roaring 2000's which I finished last week). This book provides an excellent demographic context of many of the concepts you broached. It discusses alternating entrepreneurial (Henry Ford and boomer) and managerial (Bob Hope) generations and even does a comparison of the internet with the "discontinuous revolution" of Gutenberg (what would he think of e-books). Any GGamer here could could easily reinterpret many of the ideas in GG terms. Warning ... be prepared for a lot of chafe (the irrelevant and the just plain wrong), so don your threshing togs prior to reading. That said, Dent does yield the best meshing of demographic trends and investing I've found. lurking and reading (books not e-books)... lurqer

To: TigerPaw who wrote (15940)	1/22/2000 2:15:00 PM
From: pkapsiotis	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 54805

Industrial revolution and Gorilla Gaming Part II TigerPaw, Thanks for the reply. I agree with you that by looking at this over a longer period and without concentrating in one example one can derive more useful conclusions. It made me realize some more things (speaking loudly here but oh boy this is a great learning experience). Basically, what I am hearing is that if we plot the industrial and information revolution over time vs the adoption of these technologies (Technology Adoption Curve not the Bell one that Moore is talking about but the S one) then we can derive the following conclusions: 1. The information curve represents a leap from the industrial curve to a new higher curve. (sorry about the rambling I wish I could plot this). 2. We are currently riding the lower point of the information curve where growth will be accelerating (internet/communications/biotechnology tornados). There is a point where the growth will inverse itself and start to reduce itself (the middle of the S). At that point the gorilla game investing philosophy would be obsolete and we will need to find a new "game". 3. What the gorilla game is all about is nothing different from what was in place before. Technology was bringing new products to the markets but the chasm and adoption periods took for years and years. The problem with the industrial revolution was that is span over 170 years thus not allowing to see the game evolving in the shorter term. Maybe what is happening right now is that the time frame for the S curve is much shorter (making the S look taller). Thus, we can see the adoption and the hypergrowth happening in a much shorter term and that leads to noticing it. (our pockets are sure noticing it too!) If this thinking is correct then humanity should expect a new revolution that would replace the information one in a much shorter period than it took the information one to hit. I am not trying to replace the information revolution before it even started but I though it is an interesting concept. Thanks again for your reply. Panos