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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pkapsiotis who wrote (15957)	1/22/2000 2:33:00 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Industrial Revolution and Gorilla Gaming After the communications revolution(read internet) is more or less complete. the next thing is, I strongly believe, artificial intelligence. Of course this is an old term. It really takes lots of time to build smartness into a program. ASKJ is an example. I understand the product is still quite crude. The upward path is winding and very gradual. Another example is speech recognition. It's not only a matter of capturing the sounds. We further have to guess from the context whether the word we hear is "guessed" or "guest". Of course no machine in the near future will know all the context that we know but the key to machine translation lies in the understanding of context. Building such "smart" programs as ASK Jeeves or speech recognition programs or machine translation programs or smart information retrieval programs will all require context knowledge and that takes thousands of man years to add properly. Smart programs get smart gradually. But some of them may get so far ahead of the pack that the pack quits. Then they become indispensable. Something to look for. Another very slowly advancing field but enormous in its potential is robot vision, ie. analysis of the scene. "What part am I holding? etc" That's the next stage in the industrial revolution after the internet, JMHO.

To: pkapsiotis who wrote (15957)	1/22/2000 3:18:00 PM
From: chaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

RE: Gorilla Game & Industrial Revolution In 1830, most of the industrial revolution lay ahead, and it's future was essentially "unknowable"...steam ships, trains, automobiles, airplanes...who could have guessed? And if the smartest among them knew about electricity, would there have been a forecast possible that would explain computers today? Doubtful. In 1975, could Jobs or Woz have predicted the net? Not likely, IMO. (But, maybe someone did...)What is amazing, to me at least, is that we have in one-fourth of a lifetime seen two most incredible technologies change our lives, absolutely change them. We're at the threshold of two more ...wireless, and optics. There will be others following that. Someday, I believe, life-extending technologies will emerge. Retired guys with passions, like Dancelot, will like that. We, or our great-great heirs, have time to identify those games, but in the meanwhile, I like NTAP.

To: pkapsiotis who wrote (15957)	1/22/2000 5:53:00 PM
From: Rick	Respond to of 54805

Thus, we can see the adoption and the hypergrowth happening in a much shorter term and that leads to noticing it. (our pockets are sure noticing it too!) The steam engine took some 150 years to develop from the Newcomen prototype to the railroad tornado of the 1850's. The Internet/information revolution took, what, 25 years? While we may be in the same position as an investor in the 1850's who realizes there's money to be made in high-tech, it important to remember that most of them lost money anyway. There were possibilities, yes, but there was also the problem of separating companies that were little more than a scam, from companies that were once in a life-time opportunities. In a similiar way, some of today's stocks will crash (Iridium), and some will make their backers a fortune. Our only advantage seems to be that we, at least, have a theory that's helping us to differentiate between the two. - Fred

To: pkapsiotis who wrote (15957)	1/22/2000 9:51:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

The Continuing Revolution: I took a series of courses in the '70's from an astrophysicist, Andrew J Galambos, who really cleared up the past for me, and pointed the way to the future. For instance, he predicted the rise of the Internet, in detail, in 1973!. We, of course, did not believe him. (He died in the early '90s) He proved to me that the real history of the world, and it's real future, was the controlled by the introduction of new ideas into the Civilization. He called Isaac Newton's publication of the Principia in 1683 the "Anchor Point of History", because it not only explained gravitation, but gave us the first three laws of motion. This integrated what was known in Physics to that time, and gave us the basis for all the inventions that came afterward. If you went into the home of any educated person in this country in 1776, you would have found two books for sure, the Bible, and a copy of the Principia. The key invention of the Industrial Revolution was the steam engine and the "Killer App", of course, of the steam engine, was the Railroad. Although done empirically, the men who invented them, and everything else that came at that time, had a basic understanding of the first three laws of motion. You then add an understanding of electricity, all of its "killer apps" and move from there to the modern age. Everything we invest in is tied to speed and information. The faster we move as a civilization, and the more knowledge we have; and the faster we move that knowledge, the wealthier we become. The cycle of a new business from start to high growth to stagnation and end is becoming faster and faster. As we look to the future, we can pretty well pick out the technologies that will succeed. They are the ones that give us speed and information in the simplest possible way, and are the easiest to use. The evolution of the G&K board is following the same pattern. We are getting more useful information, faster, simpler, and in an easier to use format. This is because we have hit upon the right structure, and are attracting the right people, who are willing to do the work and contribute to our common goal, because everybody involved benefits from it. The G&K Board the most successful, worthwhile, committee I have ever been on in my life! This is a direct result, of course, of invention of the Internet. The G&K board is an example of one of the "Killer Apps" of the Internet. So, where do we go from here? What do we watch for? The same things we are looking for right now, of course. Oh…….there is one major discovery yet to come. There is one major unknown in the universe that has not been solved. The person who makes that discovery will be the most important person of the 21st century, and will cause a revolution beyond any we have yet seen. What is that discovery, and how will it be made? Stay tuned, gentle reader, for my concluding chapter tomorrow! LindyBill