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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: f.simons who wrote (88971)	1/22/2000 2:36:00 PM
From: milo_morai	Respond to of 1572777

Frank, some Q1 highlights that may help you out. "Outlook: * R&D up slightly ($650M for FY2k) for Dresden and increasing product/tech development * Q1 R&D up $10-$15 * int-inc about $3M for FY2k (but $1.5M in Q1) * interest expense: $85M y2k ($15M Q1) * Taxes: zero tax rate operations (small tax expense in Q1 for gain on ireland presale * Income FASL: shares +1M per quarter * Cap spending around $800M in 2K (most in Dres) * Appreciation $600M, depending on timing $20M revenue from foundry and other services, per quarter turns to Ben: (Communications and stuff) Comm: sales up $34% Q-Q (lots of this hard to hear due to sound artifacts, lots of chat about networking here) Chat about ADSL chipsets, should grow rapidly in y2k. +50% in core line card products net growth 25% Q1 2k 50% higher than Q1 1999 single digit percent growth Q-Q Memory: sales increased 33% Q-Q (all from Flash, up to $215M) Trend to higher density continues for cell phone market. richer mix, higher ASP. Very strong demand increasing capacity for y2k Q1 expected to be more than double Q1'99, then up 10% futher Q-Q Embedded Processor Division: + Platform Products Division (AMD750) = $80M sales Q1 down $10-20M (partly due to VIA) This is okay with strategy. Jerry: Q4'99 excellent Q for AMD PC processors. +67% revs sequentially to nearly $500M record shipments in excess of 6M Better than expected demand for K6 family near record unit volume inventories drained at end of Q KASP declined only slightly because of good binsplits to 500MHz. overall ASP $80 range from $55 1M Athlons built 900,000 Athlons shipped sold over 800,000 Athlons optimistic going forward 800MHz on January 6th. 850MHz this quarter 900MHz soon after 800MHz offered by "A number" of top OEMs. widely sampling 850MHz. Mercury Research says unit share went up to 17% Forward.... More focused on profits than market share, but believe can improve both. Long range 30% unit share end of 2001 goal still in place. seasonal demand for decline of unit shipments expected ,b>Athlon unit shipments to increase in Q1. Richer mix in Q1, somewhat higher blended ASP. Memm & Comm not affected by seasonal buying patterns, will increase sequentially Total Q1 revs dramatic y-y gain. " jc-news.com Also Jerry said Flash already sold out of Q1 Milo

To: f.simons who wrote (88971)	1/22/2000 2:57:00 PM
From: steve harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572777

Frank, would you like a glimpse of the future I think about? If you don't do anything else, read this: techweb.com Looks like iNtel got it's P6 architecture from DEC. (PPro, PII, PIII, ???) AMD got Dirk Meyer and Robert Palmer from DEC. iNtel got DEC's remaining stuff I think. That's the future I like to "ponder" instead of iNtEL's past or AMD's past. Exciting times we will see in the future. regards, steve

To: f.simons who wrote (88971)	1/22/2000 3:59:00 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572777

Ted- I understand that Sanders said this quarter will be flat. Given that, why should the stock move up next week? AMD stock has already been richly rewarded for Q4 results, even considering the earnings. AMD has a very high target to hit now, one of the disadvantages of a blockbuster earnings number. A key ratio is the stock price vis-a-vis its earnings. Investors when deciding whether to get into a stock, look at its forward P/E. AMD's is 18.5, a bargain compared to the S&P's 28 and Intel's 38. That coupled with its 24% YOY increase in revs makes it a strong buy. All biases aside, it seems to me that AMD had an almost perfect Q4 and Intel had a ton of problems and still had a pretty good report. Which company has the most room for improvement over the next 3-6 months? IMO that company is Intel. If you are talking stock price, AMD has the most room to grow. Intel is very pricey given its revenue growth rate. I have said this before with tech stocks, rev growth is as important as earnings growth. The rationale behind this thinking is that a company can always improve earnings by tweaking its margins or selling investments like Intel did this last quarter but rev growth depends almost solely on the market appeal of the company's product. Certainly, if the market wants to reward AMD for past performance rather than future improvement, the stock should go up next week. So far, however, the market has chosen not to. AMD may be about to learn that blowout numbers can be a two-edged sword if there is skepticism that they can be repeated and improved on. I am fairly certain that the market will reward AMD handsomely for its turnaround success just like it has done with IBM, AAPL, ADPT, ESST, MRVC and many others.....if not this week or the week after or then the week after that. My take on the market's reaction to earnings was that it was more politics than anything else. But ultimately success sells on the street. ted

To: f.simons who wrote (88971)	1/23/2000 12:27:00 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572777

Frank, <AMD may be about to learn that blowout numbers can be a two-edged sword if there is skepticism that they can be repeated and improved on.> The problem, IMHO, is not the blowout numbers but the management of it. You can go back on this thread to early-mid december time frame and see musings from some of us why AMD was not preannouncing. Analysts who were not doing their homework got surprised badly. So, in a roundabout way what I am saying is that AMD management definitely seems to be managing investor expectations properly. There is not much excuse for forecasting 5Mu and delivering over 6Mu in the quarter. It is one thing to be conservative but the sandbagging in Q4 was a bit overdone. And looks like that is now dragging into Q1. Chuck