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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: biowa who wrote (532)	1/23/2000 9:30:00 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52153

Yeah. Been more and more on my mind, too. It will get lost in the rally, but...... 1. It will largely determine the winners and losers.... which stocks will stay up after the rally is finished, and which will prosper within five years, and 2. It will return us to a focus on small molecules within 2-3 years. There will still be a big role for certain biologicals, but the perspective will, again, swing toward small molecules. Thanks for the dose of reee..... ruh..... ree......

To: biowa who wrote (532)	1/23/2000 10:13:00 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 52153

Have you seen (thanks, SB) the TWST wrap-up from H&Q? Lots of tulips being promoted there. Some analysts and firms seem to be going for retirement now, throwing credibility to wind...... "hey, by the time they find out that I was throwing tulips onto the bonfire, I'll be in my dacha". Got to admit, however, that I don't see anything, near-term, that will douse the fire. OTOH, there are still lots of good companies that have not participated.

To: biowa who wrote (532)	1/23/2000 11:17:00 AM
From: JMarcus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

A year ago analysts were fond of point out that the market capitalization of the entire biotech sector was less than the market cap of Merck. Does anyone have an idea of how the comparison would look today? I suspect that the biotech sector would still look cheap from the perspective of that comparison. Marc

To: biowa who wrote (532)	1/23/2000 12:07:00 PM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Biowa, Some thoughts on the macro question. 1. Biotechs will begin to eat into big pharmas share of the dollar spend. Big pharma stock performance has lagged the market over the past year and one half. Many of the designer molecules that result from pharmacogenomics will replace existing drugs. 2. The developing world will become an increasingly important market for healthcare companies. 3. Drugs that will comand an increasing portion of the worlds GNP are ones that cure deadly disease and extend life. IMO the more effective the molecules are the more likely the will command a larger potion of GNP. 4. Drugs have the potential to massively reduce hopital stays eliminate a huge dollar cost that will be tranfered to the discovery companies. Some of the issues that our society will have to deal with are access to the medicines of the 21st century. Will all Americans have equal access. Do they today? Does the gap between the quality of medical care for the haves and have nots grow. IMO when historians look back to the first 30 years of the 21st century the defining event willnot be the interet or telecomunications but the advances in healthcare as a result of understanding the human genome and the therapies that result therefrom. That being said I think the genomics companies are overbought at this point and we will see a correction over the next few months. V1