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To: DanZ who wrote (21972)1/23/2000 10:34:00 PM
From: John McCarthy  Respond to of 53068
 
Dan .....

thank you for your response ........

I will try to *take* you there (good/bad) and save
you some time .......

(1) The numbers this quarter - per me ......
messages.yahoo.com

(2) The competition/markets ......

the asethetic market consists of 4 catgories

+hair
+veins
+skin resurfacing
+tattoes

the players
+escm
+cohr
+clzr

hair is the largest and 5 qtrs ago CLZR shook up the industry
with the *best* laser at $70,000 a copy versus a worse laser
at $150,000 a copy .....

this killed off escm (see a 1 yr chart) and cohr jumped back
in by buying someone else's lazer for $65 million ....

presently .........
its between clzr and cohr .... with cohr being the much
bigger company .... but no one can convince me that cohr

can cover just the interest expense, 1st yr write-off ($16mil)
and goodwill amoritization they have had to eat on to get
in this game ... again, clzr price point is the *issue*.

thru 2 qtrs - without doubt - cohr has impacted clzr laser hair
sales - *but* - in the usa only. Internationally, clzr is
still as strong as ever.

now .......
clzr has dropped its second bombshell and has come out with
a $70,000 laser for *cutaneous lesions* i.e. veins, stretch
marks etc ........

my opinion - certainly not a fact .....

they will own this market because of the price point

the current market is worth $70 million but the price point
will *increase* the entrants .....

as a side kicker .... clzr has an exclusive deal with pssi,
pssi targets approx 150,000 doctors and clzr *is* selling their hair
lasers into this group and *soon* will be selling its
*cutaneous lesions* laser (called the VBeam).

btw - thru 4 qtrs - pssi has sold approx $10 million of clzr
hair lasers to *regular* doctors ......

the *key* here is the baby doctors i.e. will they want to
*also* provide stretch mark services .....

think about it .... the laser costs LESS THAN their mercedes ...

a negative to be aware of .........

Lastly, I *am* concerned that Q3 revenue stay on track to be
30% above prior year. My *concern* is simply one of time ....

i.e. I figure CLZR only has a 6 week window to pump thru
VBeam sales in Q3 ....

In any event, Q4 will be an eye opener ......
meaning they will beat the qtr hands down .... the question
is - how much.

Finally, the *reason* for the tremendous build up in short
sales was because the Regents of Beckmen (UCLA) threatened
to break their license agreement with CLZR.

The matter is set for arbitration in early Feb. but
per the clzr conf. call Beckman has backed off and
once to *mediate* ....

my point .... this is a stupid non-issue that was *created*
by Beckman in the 1st place.

DO NOT BUY this stock unless you read the boilerplate
in the last 10Q.

as always - I am stupid - so please do your own *DD*

note:I *am* very long this stock ......

regards,
John McCarthy



To: DanZ who wrote (21972)1/25/2000 7:26:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53068
 
Dan GUMM

we all tip our hats to you on this one
fantastic

when one has had a run like this at what point does one begin to take a tad off the table vs going for the grand slam on the entire position?

this is not GUMM specific but a more generic question

on GUMM, when it did the spike to 30 yesterday it looked to me like
a big seller came in and took some profits
the chart shows an "upper tail"
might this now consolidate in the 24-28 area until the next "news" breaks?

best of luck with this one
you took the risk, put in a huge amount of study, work, and time
enjoy the rewards