To: DanZ who wrote (21972 ) 1/23/2000 10:34:00 PM From: John McCarthy Respond to of 53068
Dan ..... thank you for your response ........ I will try to *take* you there (good/bad) and save you some time ....... (1) The numbers this quarter - per me ......messages.yahoo.com (2) The competition/markets ...... the asethetic market consists of 4 catgories +hair +veins +skin resurfacing +tattoes the players +escm +cohr +clzr hair is the largest and 5 qtrs ago CLZR shook up the industry with the *best* laser at $70,000 a copy versus a worse laser at $150,000 a copy ..... this killed off escm (see a 1 yr chart) and cohr jumped back in by buying someone else's lazer for $65 million .... presently ......... its between clzr and cohr .... with cohr being the much bigger company .... but no one can convince me that cohr can cover just the interest expense, 1st yr write-off ($16mil) and goodwill amoritization they have had to eat on to get in this game ... again, clzr price point is the *issue*. thru 2 qtrs - without doubt - cohr has impacted clzr laser hair sales - *but* - in the usa only. Internationally, clzr is still as strong as ever. now ....... clzr has dropped its second bombshell and has come out with a $70,000 laser for *cutaneous lesions* i.e. veins, stretch marks etc ........ my opinion - certainly not a fact ..... they will own this market because of the price point the current market is worth $70 million but the price point will *increase* the entrants ..... as a side kicker .... clzr has an exclusive deal with pssi, pssi targets approx 150,000 doctors and clzr *is* selling their hair lasers into this group and *soon* will be selling its *cutaneous lesions* laser (called the VBeam). btw - thru 4 qtrs - pssi has sold approx $10 million of clzr hair lasers to *regular* doctors ...... the *key* here is the baby doctors i.e. will they want to *also* provide stretch mark services ..... think about it .... the laser costs LESS THAN their mercedes ... a negative to be aware of ......... Lastly, I *am* concerned that Q3 revenue stay on track to be 30% above prior year. My *concern* is simply one of time .... i.e. I figure CLZR only has a 6 week window to pump thru VBeam sales in Q3 .... In any event, Q4 will be an eye opener ...... meaning they will beat the qtr hands down .... the question is - how much. Finally, the *reason* for the tremendous build up in short sales was because the Regents of Beckmen (UCLA) threatened to break their license agreement with CLZR. The matter is set for arbitration in early Feb. but per the clzr conf. call Beckman has backed off and once to *mediate* .... my point .... this is a stupid non-issue that was *created* by Beckman in the 1st place. DO NOT BUY this stock unless you read the boilerplate in the last 10Q. as always - I am stupid - so please do your own *DD* note:I *am* very long this stock ...... regards, John McCarthy