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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SargeK who wrote (59054)	1/25/2000 11:09:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 95453

DUMPED FGH - MORE VERY BAD NEWS ! - Ps Sarge... I closed out a small trading position; simply equal if not better value's here off of this retrace with none of the risk & baggage. The risk & baggage hanging on FGH here is no longer worth even a technical trade - as the values being presented by this Oilpatch retrace are simply overshadowing anything that FGH can offer. Another bomb drops on FGH... When is it going to end ? re: ===================================================================== from yahoo: Sarge only seems to "selectively" cut & past the propaganda positive posts, so I thought I would add the other side of the story...(VBG). $199 million backlog, food for thought by: crossword1999 1/24/00 5:49 pm Msg: 3768 of 3784 The FGH press release of Jan. 12 indicated the company has four contracts totaling $199 million. One, for $110 million is dependent on the company providing a financial guarantee bond in the amount of 10% of the contract value. In lieu of FGH's financial situation, who knows if they can come up with the money. The second for $70 million is subject to U. S. Maritime Administration financing. Previous widely ignored posts on this board have pointed out that Maritime Administration financing is "iffy." Now comes word from the horse's mouth, Tim Colton, FGH Senior VP of Business Development. He is quoted on page 3 of the Jan. 2000 edition of "Marine Log" magazine saying the number one problem facing U. S. shipbuilders is the likelihood that Title XI will run out of funds some time early this year. On page 60 of the same issue, Michael Sacco, president of the Maritime Trades Dept. of the AFL-CIO is quoted in regard to Title XI funds. "Program levels have decreased from $40 million in 1966 to only $6 million in the final FY 2000 budget. Currently there are nearly $1.4 in shipbuilding contracts pending MARAD review and approval. Most will not be initiated without federal loan guarantees to help secure competitive private sector funding." All that glitters is not gold, or real money in the bank contracts, so take that $199 million backlog with a lot of salt. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sarge; re: my comments on trading ranges: Sarge, first - trading ranges are living -breathing creatures - they are continually evolving as events unfold. When the Ocean Rig dispute was looming as a prime catalyst for the potential Bankruptcy reorg filing for FGH - $3 surely seemed very possible fundamentally & technically; if FGH would have filed - who knows if $3 would have even held ? Now, with the Ocean Rig settlement - Bankruptcy is not an "immediate" threat - but; may be again ... so a $5 - $9 range seems viable. I am sorry that you uneducated, feeble brain, has such a difficult time grasping anything that moves at more than a snails pace intellectually, or conceptually. My comments on "Petro Drill" are that the Ocean Rig (excuse my typo error you alluded to) deal has allready been booked & is in their receiveables - this is NOT the great news financially in the short, or longterm that many think it is and it now focuses the spotlight on the "Petro Drill" deal - as a "make, or break" deal imho. My question list still stands ! - as you have no clue to the problems FGH faces, their financials, what damn businesses they are even in, or what is even going on in their industry ! All you have done is continually attack everyone else who has presented "reality" on FGH - and WE have been continually right ! Sarge, cutting & pasting a continual re-hash of FGH-PR releases that have had terrible credibility and even worse timing - has totally and completely destroyed ALL credibility you had, or EVER will have. I have never seen anyone - who has so completely gotten everything wrong about a single company, for such a long period of time; and the facts clearly support this as being accurate. Add to that; your compulsive/obsessive posting and incessant attacks that have portrayed yourself as having gone over the edge mentally AND emotionally. When I use the word "KOOK" - I can think of no better one word label that has ever fit anyone better ! I made the comment that YOU have NOT gotten one single thing right about FGH yet - and it still stands; as you have kept chirping on - "if not FGH - then who" concerning the Tidewater newbuild proposals. Well Sarge - with this post; the post I will "paste" below & the accompanying links - this is a moot point. Again - you had NO CLUE as to WHY FGH was "REALLY" dumping the shipbuilding assets - because HOLLOWAY BLEW IT ! He bought HLX as a liferaft and now the shipbuilding assets are going to have to be dumped & charges taken that may eat the financials of FGH like a flesh eating virus for some time to come... MARAD financing kept this sector alive and this "freebie" is over... ..if not "FGH" then who ? - I would start here; these are just the domestic yards - Intnly - the list is huge. marinelog.com -------------------------------------------------------------------- Also, you keep harping on the potential for FGH in the FPSO businesss... Well there are many, many International Yards who are allready building them & here is yet another link to a new FPSO contract that FGH could have received - but did not... This also goes to the huge Intnl competition that FGH faces in both Rig const & especially if they choose to, or can financially remain in the shipbuilding business: marinelog.com <<Brown & Root planning to build FPSO's in Brazil According to a Brazilian press report earlier this week, Brown & Root is planning to procure two FPSO's from Brazilian yards for development of the Barracuda and Caratingas fields, subject to approval by Petrobras>> Or how about this: Korean's dumping on the US shipbuilding industry - how about Hyundai as a HUGE competitor to FGH ! marinelog.com <<There is no doubt that the pricing policies of Korean shipyards are having an immediate negative impact on the world shipbuilding community; however, perhaps more importantly, these practices will have a negative impact for years to come.... *There are a number of factors that should be examined in order to understand why Korean shipyards are selling vessels for less than the cost of production.* (HELLO ! people - there is no worse industry to be in that Shipbuilding here ! - the domestic shipbuilders are going broke at record pace - look at what Canada had to do - sell the yard for $1 to save jobs - that FGH couldn't & didn't deliver by the way !) ...it is estimated that Korean shipyards tripled their building capacity between 1994 and 1996. Today, Korean capacity is estimated at about 4.6 million cgt. In order to utilize this increased capacity, Korean shipyards over the past three years have drastically cut the prices they charge to build ships in almost every sector of the market, forcing other countries to reduce their prices or risk losing contracts. *(not just does FGH face incredible risk to the shipbuilding side - but their core Rig const business as well)* ie: U.S. shipyards have been hurt directly by Korean price reductions for construction of offshore oil rigs and drilling platforms. In 1996, Hyundai announced its intention to go after the oil rig and drilling platform market. Other Korean shipyards that in the past have not been players in the rig and platform market have also entered this segment of the industry in order to utilize their increased capacity. The pattern or artificially low pricing extends into these markets as well. Not only are Korean shipyards increasing their share of the world market in this sector, they are garnering contracts from U.S. companies for rigs and platforms for use in the Gulf of Mexico. Korean shipyards are underbidding U.S. competition despite the fact that it costs several million dollars to transport rigs and platforms from Korea to the Gulf of Mexico. *** (here is irony at its zenith ! MARAD funds disappearing for US co's & the IMF is pumping up their foreign competitors !)ie: There is little doubt that IMF funds are being used to subsidize the Korean shipbuilding industry, both directly and indirectly. =================================================================== Sarge - get a clue ! There is NO company in the entire Oilpatch that faces greater financial & fundamental risk to their core businesses than FGH. This merger was a HUGE MISTAKE - and will cost JL Holloway all of his credibility & respect from the market; in my personal opinion that is being reflected by the massive Institutional exit and the shareprice. The bad news for FGH and its niche industries just keeps flowing in. Add to that FGH is worse than Clinton in disclosing this news... This company is so slimey - it really isn't even worth trading any longer; even if "one can"... In my opinion; right here - right now; DUMP FGH and run as fast as you can. Put the money to work on this retrace into what is about to be a tremendous Oilpatch run up. The risk of deadmoney, or even bankruptcy does NOT offset the potential that FGH does have; albeit very small - to rise to double digits. This dog does not only, still has fleas's - but it is terminal imho and should be put out of its misery. DUMP IT NOW ON ANY STRENGTH & ROTATE THE MONEY!